| This page contains scientific data and results from the staff of the Institute of Earth Sciences and various collaborators. The data is posted timely to give maximum information on evaluation of an evolving natural catastrophe. Please respect copyright and authorship of the data. |
New material is added to the top of the page. The original information is at the end of the article, therefore this page gives an overview of events. Below is a calender with a short-cut to each day within this long text:
December: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-19-20-21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31
November: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-19-20-21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30
October:1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-19-20-21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31
September:1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-19-20-21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30
August: 17-18-19-20-21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31
For detailed information on seismicity go to the IMO (Icelandic Met Office) webpage
See also earthquake maps on IMO's web
Web-cameras from M&T ehf are watching the area in various directions.
Web-camera from Míla is watching the eruption in Holuhraun. Please observe that Míla's background photo has nothing to do with the current events.
30.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. The lava is now flowing inside a closed channel to the eastern edge of the lava field, about 15 km from the crater. Lava is also running to the north.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong, but it has though somewhat decreased. The strongest earthquake over the last two days was detected tonight, 30. December, was magnitude M5,3 at 00:11. Eleven earthquakes larger then M3,0 were detected since noon on Sunday and in total around 100 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Sunday.
- GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga.
- Telecommunications with the GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera have not been established yet.
Air quality:
- Tonight gas pollution can be expected northeast of the eruption site. Tomorrow (Tuesday) gas pollution is expected to the east of Holuhraun but also to the west in the evening.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 6 of January 2015.
22.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. The lava is now flowing inside a closed channel to the eastern edge of the lava field, about 15 km from the crater. Lava is also running to the north.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong, but it has though somewhat decreased. The strongest earthquake since noon on Friday, 19. December, was magnitude M4,5 yesterday, 21. December, at 16:12 on the southern rim of the caldera. Six earthquakes larger then M4,0 were detected since Friday and about 25 earthquakes between M3,0-4,0. In total about 135 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Friday.
- Eighteen earthquakes were detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Friday. All smaller then magnitude M2,0.
- GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow subsidence towards Bardarbunga. The rate of the subsidence has slowly decreased.
- Telecommunications with the GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera have not been established yet. Due to bad weather, over the last few weeks, scientists have not able to travel to Bardarbunga. It is unlikely that any attempt will be made to fix the GPS station until after the holidays.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) gas pollution is expected in the southeast parts. Tomorrow (Tuesday) gas pollution might be felt southwest of the eruption site.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
- The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 30 of December.
- The Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection has held 80 meetings since the seismic activity started on the 16th of August. The Scientific Advisory Boards wishes all its’ dedicated readers a Merry Christmas.
19.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. Indication show that the lava is now mainly flowing inside closed channels except closest to the crater. One of the main lava channels is now flowing to the north.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The strongest earthquake since noon on Tuesday, 17. December, was magnitude M5,3 on Wednesday, 17. December, at 13:59 on the northern rim of the caldera. The earthquake was felt in Akureyri. About 6 earthquakes between M4,0-5,0 were detected since Tuesday. In total about 200 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Tuesday.
- About 20 earthquakes were detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Tuesday. All smaller then magnitude M2,0.
- GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow subsidence towards Bardarbunga. The rate of the subsidence has slowly decreased.
- Yesterday, 18. December, scientists flew over Bardarbunga. The data collected in the flight show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as before. The caldera has subsided between 4-5 meters since 4. December and the south caldera rim has subsided between 7-8 meters since the beginning of the seismic activity in August.
- Telecommunications with the GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera have not been established yet. Due to bad weather forecast it is unlikely that scientists will be able to travel to Bardarbunga in the next few days. A connection will be established with the GPS station as soon as possible.
Air quality:
- Today (Friday) gas pollution from the eruption is expected southeast of the eruption site. Tomorrow (Saturday) gas pollution is expected Widespread around the eruption site and to the north in the afternoon.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 22 December.
16.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. Indication show that the lava is now mainly flowing inside closed channels.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The strongest earthquake since noon on Friday, 12. December, was magnitude M5,4 yesterday, 15. December, at 09:37 on the northern rim of the caldera. About 20 earthquakes larger then M4,0 were detected since Friday. In total about 200 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Friday. A collection of data from the beginning of the seismic activity in Bardarbunga show a steadily decline in the seismic activity and in the number of large earthquakes.
- On Saturday and Sunday, 13. and 14. December, a minor increased seismic activity was detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun. Between 15 and 20 earthquakes were detected each day, all smaller then magnitude M2,0. Since then about 10 earthquakes a day were detected in the dyke, all smaller then magnitude M2,0.
- GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow subsidence towards Bardarbunga. The rate of the subsidence has slowly decreased.
- Telecommunications with the GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera have not been established yet. Due to bad weather forecast it is unlikely that scientists will be able to travel to Bardarbunga in the next few days. A connection will be established with the GPS station as soon as possible.
Air quality:
- Today (Tuesday) gas pollution from the eruption moves to the north and northwest. Tomorrow (Wednesday) gas pollution might be felt in the northeast parts.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 19 December.
12.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. Indication show that the lava is now mainly flowing inside closed channels that open near the edges of the lava field.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The strongest earthquake since noon on Wednesday, 10. December, was magnitude M4,6 yesterday at 12:40 on the northern rim of the caldera. About 15 earthquakes larger then M4,0 were detected since Wednesday and about 20 earthquakes between M3,0-4,0. In total about 130 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Wednesday.
- Little seismic activity was detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Wednesday. About 10 earthquakes were detected during that time, all smaller then M1,1.
- GPS measurements show continuing slow subsidence towards Bardarbunga.
- Telecommunications with the GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera have not been established yet. Due to bad weather forecast it is unlikely that scientists will be able to travel to Bardarbunga in the next few days. A connection will be established with the GPS station as soon as possible.
Air quality:
- Today (Friday) gas pollution is expected in the south, and later in the day to the east and northeast of the eruption. Tomorrow (Saturday) gas pollution might be felt in the northeast parts.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 15 December.
The lava Nornahraun as scanned by the LANDSAT 8 satellite from NASA & USGS today (11.12.2014) Image processing and analysis: Volcanology and natural hazard group, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland. The lava covers an area of 77,5 km2 (77,1km2 + 0,4km2).
10.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. The lava is now also flowing towards east northeast into the small island in the centre of the lava field. This change can be seen from web cameras.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The strongest earthquake since noon on Monday, 8. December, was magnitude M4,9 on Tuesday at 18:00. About 20 earthquakes larger then M3,0 were detected since Monday. In total about 180 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Monday.
- Little seismic activity was detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Monday. It worth noting that the storm, now going over Iceland, reduces the sensitivity of the seismograph system, making it harder to detect small earthquakes.
- GPS measurements show no changes. The subsidence towards Bardarbunga continues with similar rate as has been.
- Telecommunications with the GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera have not been established yet. Due to bad weather forecast it is unlikely that scientists will be able to travel to Bardarbunga in the next few days. A connection will be established with the GPS station as soon as possible.
Air quality:
- Today and tomorrow (Wednesday and Thursday) gas pollution is expected south of the eruption site.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 12 December.
08.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. Tomorrow, Tuesday 9. December, will be 100 days from its outbreak.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The strongest earthquake since noon on Friday, 5. December, was magnitude M5,1 on Friday at 21:05. About 20 earthquakes between M4,0-5,0 were detected since Friday and 10 earthquakes between magnitude M3,0-4,0. In total about 300 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Friday.
- Little seismic activity was detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Friday.
- GPS measurements show no changes. The subsidence towards Bardarbunga continues with similar rate as has been.
- Telecommunications with the GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera have not been established yet. Due to bad weather forecast it is unlikely that scientists will be able to travel to Bardarbunga in the next few days. A connection will be established with the GPS station as soon as possible.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) gas pollution is expected east and south of the eruption site before noon, but north and northwest of it in the afternoon. Tomorrow (Tuesday) the pollution is expected north and northeast of the volcano.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Wednesday 10 December.
05.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity. Driving conditions are becoming hard in the area around the eruption site and on the road into the area making observation of the eruption more difficult for the scientists in the field.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Since Monday, the 3. of November, 200 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera. The largest measured earthquake was on Tuesday, November 4. at 20:45 of M4,8. A total of 15 earthquakes were of sizes between M 4 and 5; 15 of sizes between M3 and 4. No earthquakes larger than M5 have been observed since Sunday.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga shows that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as it has been doing over the last few weeks. Measurements carried out from the air show that the greatest subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera has now reached 44 meters.
- Energy of the geothermal areas in Bardarbunga is now few hundred megawatts and the melting of water is estimated around 2 cubic meters per. second. Aerial observations on Tuesday November 4th show that the geothermal cauldrons in Báðarbunga have deepened by 5-8 meters over the past 11 days.
- Only 30 smaller earthquakes were detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun since Monday, none larger than M2,0.
- GPS measurements in the active area show minor changes, there are however signs of a slight decrease in the subsidence towards the Bárðarbunga volcano.
Air quality:
- Today (Wednesday) gas pollution from the eruption will travel towards northeast and subsequently to the northwest. Initially the pollution will be detected in the area of Austfirðir and subsequently as far west as Skagafjörður along the north coast. Tomorrow the the pollution will travel to the west and northwest coastal areas. Tomorrow evening the pollution will reach the coastal areas in the southwestern part of the country.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 8 December.
03.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
Today the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection reviewed data about the development of events in Bardarbunga and the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun, from the beginning of the unrest until the present day. Most of the data show a decline in the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera and the volcanic eruption on Holuhraun. Earthquake activity is though still strong and the flow of lave great in comparison to volcanic eruptions in Iceland for over the last 100 years. The findings of the meetings are as follows:
- Earthquakes in Bardarbunga: Seismic activity has been very strong since mid-august. The activity peaked in first half of September, it has slowly decreased since then, but activity remains intense. The period of seismic unrest is one of the largest ever recorded in a volcano globally.
- Earthquakes in the dyke from Bardarbunga to Holuhraun: Strong seismic activity coincided with the progression of the dyke in the second half of August, but it decreased after the volcanic eruption began on Holuhraun. Earthquakes are still detected in the dyke but they are small and relatively few.
- Subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera: In the days following the onset of the seismic unrest, the ice-covered base of the caldera began to subsidence up-to 80 cm a day, but the subsidence has since slowed and it is now around 25 cm per day. The subsidence is in the shape of a bowl and it is greatest in the centre of the caldera, about 50 m, but smaller to the edges.
- Crustal deformation: Extensive ground deformation Major was recorded while the dyke was forming, signalling the progression of the dyke and subsidence towards Bardarbunga. Interpretation of GPS data and analysis of satellite interferograms indicates that the volume of the magma in the dyke is about 0.5 cubic kilometres, and that it was fully formed by the beginning of the volcanic eruption. After the eruption started the subsidence has been steady, but slowly decreasing, towards Bardarbunga.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun: The volcanic eruption that began on Holuhraun on 31 of August is characterised by a large and unusually steady flow of lava. The magma that comes up is a rather primitive basalt, with a chemical composition typical of the Bardarbunga volcanic system. The petrology analysis of the magma suggests that it stabilised at 9-20 km depth, meaning that it could not have resided at a shallower depth in the crust. The lava field is now 76 square kilometres in area. It is more difficult to measure the volume of the lava than the corresponding area. Measurements by air on 4th and 26th of November indicate that the volume of the lava is now about 1.0 cubic kilometre but the uncertainty is 0.3 cubic kilometres. The flow of lava was about 200 cubic meters per second in September but the average flow rate for November is estimated to have been under 100 cubic meters per second. The new lava field is the largest in Iceland since the Laki eruption (1783-1784) and it is probably the third largest lava field on the planet over that period.
- Gas: For the first time in 150 years, gas pollution from a volcanic eruption has had an impact in Iceland. The reason is the size and the long duration of the eruption. The flux of the sulphuric dioxide (SO2) in the gas cloud has been measured as high as 1300 kg per second, but the average flux in the first month of the eruption was estimated to have been 400 kg per second. Measurements of the total flux of gas at the eruption site are difficult and the uncertainty of these values are very high. It is probable that the flux of gas will decrease in line with decreasing flow of magma, but this has not been confirmed by measurements. A few cases of high SO2 concentration have been recorded in populated areas over the last few weeks compared to September and October, but in those cases weather conditions may have had an equally large effect as the flux of gas coming from the eruption site.
- If the unrest continues in a similar fashion, the subsidence of Bardarbunga and the volcanic eruption on Holuhraun will continue for at least some months. The situation could, of course, change so scenerios such a subglacial eruption remain a possibility.
- Two earthquakes stronger then M5,0 were detected in Bardarbunga from noon on Monday. The former was M5,2 on Monday, 1. December, at 12:52 on the south-eastern rim of the caldera and the second was M5,4 on Tuesday, 2. December, at 02:18 on the northern rim. Since noon on Monday 10 earthquakes between M4,0-5,0 were detected in Bardarbunga and 10 earthquakes between M3,0-4,0. In total about 120 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga during that time.
- Little seismic activity was detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Monday.
Air quality:
- Today (Wednesday) gas pollution is expected northeast of the eruption site. Tomorrow (Thursday) gas pollution is expected in most of the eastern part.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 5 December.
LANDSAT 8 thermal image from NASA and USGS from 2. December.
Satellite image from NASA 1.12.2014 20:39 GMT The new outbreak on the northern side has increased 450 m towards NNE since 30.11.2014
01.12.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- Insubstantial changes have been on the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last two weeks.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The biggest earthquake that was detected since noon on Friday, was of magnitude M4,5 on Friday, 28. November at 22:52. Since noon on Friday 12 earthquakes larger then M4,0 were detected in Bardarbunga. In total about 200 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Friday.
- About 10 earthquakes were detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Friday. All of them were smaller then magnitude M1,0. It is worth noting that the seismograph network is sensitive to wind so fewer smaller earthquakes are detected during a stormy weather like the one that has gone over Iceland in the last few days.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday) gas pollution is expected northeast of the eruption site.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Wednesday 3 December.
Map made from SENTINEL 1 Radar Image from ESA (European Space Agency) taken on 30. November at 07:32 GMT
28.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- Insubstantial changes have been on the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last two weeks.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The biggest earthquake that was detected since noon on Wednesday, was of magnitude M5,1 this morning, 28. November at 06:41. Since noon on Wednesday 7 earthquakes larger then M4,0 were detected in Bardarbunga and 12 earthquakes between M3,0-3,9. In total about 170 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since Wednesday.
- About 20 earthquakes were detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Wednesday. All of them were smaller then magnitude M1,0.
- About 20 earthquakes were detected in Tungnafellsjokull glacier since Wednesday. The biggest one was of magnitude M2,0.
- Scientists flew over Bardarbunga on Wednesday, 26. November. According to data collected in the flight the total depression of the Bardarbunga caldera is 50 meters and the total volume of the depression about 1,4 cubic kilometre since the seismic activity started in mid-August.
- No signal is coming from the GPS station in the Bardarbunga caldera, the most likely explanation is that the subsidence of the caldera is so great that the GPS station is now below the caldera rim and is therefore out of sight of the relay station in Kverkfjoll.
Air quality:
- Today (Friday) and tomorrow gas pollution is expected north of the eruption site, but in East Iceland tomorrow night.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 1 December.
Photo taken on flight with ISAVIA on 26. November - Tobias Dürig
26.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity as last two weeks.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The biggest earthquake that was detected since noon on Monday, was of magnitude M4,4 on Tuesday, 25. November at 23:26. Since noon on Monday 13 earthquakes larger then M3,0 and in total about 140 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga.
- About 20 earthquakes were detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Monday. The largest on was of magnitude M1,8.
- No signal is coming from the GPS station in the Bardarbunga caldera, the most likely explanation is icing on the antenna. A flight is scheduled over Bardarbunga today and new measurements of the depression are expected after that.
Air quality:
- Today (Wednesday) gas pollution is expected northeast of the eruption site, but in a wide area north of it tomorrow (Thursday).
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 28 November.
LANDSAT 8 image from last night.
The lava field has increased quite a bit to the south and is also reaching the edge to the north. The lava now covers an area of 74,1 km2.
Disused overflow channels on the sides of Baugur. They are clearly visible from the air as black lava flows running over lighter coloured spatter and through the FLIR camera as lineaments of higher temperature. From William Moreland.
24.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues to be strong. The lava flow and the gas emission in the volcanic plume is more fluctuating than it has been. There is a double pulse cycle, or fluctuation, one takes hours and the other takes between 10 and 20 seconds.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The biggest earthquakes that was detected since noon on Friday, were of magnitude M5,1 on Sunday, 23. November at 09:22 and this morning, 24. November, at 09:03 of magnitude M5,4. In total 36 earthquakes bigger then M4,0 were detected over the period and 56 earthquakes between M3,0-3,9. In total about 250 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Friday.
- First analysis from a new seismograph, which was installed on Bardarbunga on 11. November, shows that the earthquakes in the Bardarbunga caldera originate in the uppermost three kilometres of the earth’s crust. This indicates that the magma is closer to the earth’s surface than was estimated before.
- On Saturday, 22 November, at 00:51 an earthquake of magnitude M1,7 was detected in the dyke. In total about 80 earthquakes were detected in the dyke and around the eruption site in Holuhraun since Friday.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera and tectonics continues with similar rate as last few weeks. Tectonics movements show depression towards Bardarbunga.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) gas pollution is expected to the north and later east from the eruption site. Tomorrow (Tuesday) gas pollution is expected mainly to the north of the eruption site.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Wednesday 26 November.
EO-1 ALI Image from NASA & USGS from 20.11.2014 21:00 GMT
21.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues to be strong. The activity is similar as it has been for the last two weeks but the lava flow is more fluctuating. The lava flow forms an extrusion to the east southeast. From mid-September the productivity of the eruption has decreased.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The biggest earthquake that was detected since noon on Wednesday, 18. November at 00:26 was of magnitude M4,6. In total 16 earthquakes bigger then M4,0 were detected over the period and 39 earthquakes between M3,0-3,9. In total 170 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Wednesday.
- On Thursday, 20 November at 08:46 an earthquake of magnitude M1,9 was detected in the dyke. Three other earthquakes larger then M1,5 were detected in the dyke since Wednesday. In total 65 earthquakes were detected in the dyke over the period, which is more activity then has been detected over the past few weeks. Most of the earthquakes were detected in north end of the dyke but about 15 earthquakes, including the larger ones, were more to the south and under Vatnajokull glacier.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera and tectonics continues with similar rate as last few weeks. Tectonics movements show depression towards Bardarbunga.
Air quality:
- Today (Friday), gas pollution is expected to the north of the Holuhraun eruption site. Tomorrow (Saturday) gas pollution is expected in the Western part of Iceland.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 24 November.
Photo taken on 20 November. Photographer: Ármann Höskuldsson
19.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity as it has for the last two weeks. Lava continues to flow out of the lava lake in the crater to east southeast.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The two biggest earthquakes that were detected since noon on Monday were both of magnitude M4,6. On Tuesday, 18. November at 18:21 and on tonight, 19. November, at 00:29. In total 16 earthquakes bigger then M4,0 were detected over the period and 51 earthquakes between M3,0-3,9. In total 200 earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Friday.
- About 25 smaller earthquakes were detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun. All of them under magnitude M1,6.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with similar rate as last few weeks.
Air quality:
- Today (Wednesday) and tomorrow (Thursday) gas pollution can be expected north of the eruption site.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 21 November.
17.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity as it has for the last two weeks. Lava continues to flow out of the lava lake in the crater to east southeast. The Lava field is now about 72 square kilometres.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The two biggest earthquakes that were detected since noon on Friday were both of magnitude M5,4. On Friday, 14. November at 11:25 and on Sunday, 16. November, at 01:37. In total 16 earthquakes bigger then M4,0 were detected over the period and 25 earthquakes between M3,0-3,9. In total 160 of earthquakes were detected in Bardarbunga since noon on Friday.
- About 50 smaller earthquakes were detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun. All of them under magnitude M1,6.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with similar rate as last few weeks. The rate of the depression in the centre of the caldera is decreasing but the flow of magma underneath the caldera is not decreasing since the depression area in the caldera continues to enlarge with the same rate as it has for the last three months.
- GPS measurements outside of Bardarbunga show that the displacement is slowing down.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) pollution from the eruption can be expected north and east of the eruption site, from Skjalfandafloi and east towards Djupavogur. Tomorrow (Monday) is expected northeast of Holuhraun, from Tjornes in the West to Mjoifjordur in the East. Light winds are forecast for both days, increasing the risk of high values of gas concentration.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Wednesday 19 November.
14.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity as it has for the last two weeks. Lava continues to flow out of the lava lake in the crater to east southeast. Convection of sulphuric dioxide from the crater appears to be constant.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong but number of earthquakes stronger then M5,0 seem to be decreasing. The biggest earthquakes that were detected over the last two days were yesterday, 13. November at 20:46 of magnitude M4,9 and at 23:08 of magnitude M4,8. In total 17 earthquakes bigger then M4,0 were detected over the period but no earthquake stronger then M5,0 has been detected for four days. From noon on Wednesday the total number of earthquakes in Bardarbunga was around 140.
- About 25 smaller earthquakes were detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun. All of them under magnitude M1,5.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with similar rate as last few weeks although the rate of the depression appears to be slower.
- GPS measurements outside of Bardarbunga show that the displacement is slowing down.
Air quality:
- Today (Friday) pollution from the eruption in Holuhraun is most likely to the west. Tomorrow (Saturday) pollution from the eruption site is most likely to the northwest.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 17 November.
12.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity. Lava continues to flow out of the lava lake in the crater. The lava field continues to grow to the south. Yesterday a helicopter from the Icelandic Cost Guard used to examine conditions by the southern edge of the lava field, were lave is flowing on a 3-5 km wide area.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The biggest earthquake that was detected over the last two days was on Monday, 10. November at 22:39 of magnitude M5,2. In total 15 earthquakes between M4,0 and M5,0 were detected over the period. From noon on Monday the total number of earthquakes was around 130.
- Very few smaller earthquakes were detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun.
- An earthquake swarm was detected in Tungnafellsjokll glacier yesterday. The biggest earthquake was at 10:07 of magnitude M2,8.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with similar rate as last few weeks. Yesterday the GPS station was lifted out of the snow, which is now falling on the glacier. The sharp rise seen on the graph on the Icelandic Met Office web page, is the result of this operation.
Air quality:
- Today (Wednesday) and tomorrow (Thursday) gas pollution is expected in the Western part of Iceland.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 14 November.
10.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity. The lava field is now 70 square kilometres.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Since Friday, 7. November, around 200 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera. The biggest one was M5,2 yesterday at 21:19. In total 20 earthquakes between M4,0 and M5,0 were detected since Friday.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with similar rate as last few weeks.
- In total 20 smaller earthquakes were detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun since Friday.
- Displacements of GPS stations show a slower subsidence towards Bardarbunga.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) gas pollution is expected mainly in Western Iceland. Tomorrow (Tuesday) gas pollution might be felt in many more places in the Northwestern part of Iceland.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Wednesday 12 November.
07.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Since Wednesday, 5. November, around 150 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera. The biggest one was M5,4 today at 07:11. In total 15 earthquakes stronger then M3,0 were detected over the last two days.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera has decreased. Other measurements do though show that the volume of the subsidence increases with the same rate as it has done since these measurements started in September. This indicates that the flow of magma from Bardarbunga is not decreasing.
- Smaller earthquakes were detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun.
- Displacements of GPS stations show a slower subsidence towards Bardarbunga.
Air quality:
- Today and tomorrow (Friday and Saturday) gas pollution can be expected west and southwest of the eruption site.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 10 November.
05.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity. Driving conditions are becoming hard in the area around the eruption site and on the road into the area making observation of the eruption more difficult for the scientists in the field.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Since Monday, the 3. of November, 200 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera. The largest measured earthquake was on Tuesday, November 4. at 20:45 of M4,8. A total of 15 earthquakes were of sizes between M 4 and 5; 15 of sizes between M3 and 4. No earthquakes larger than M5 have been observed since Sunday.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga shows that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as it has been doing over the last few weeks. Measurements carried out from the air show that the greatest subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera has now reached 44 meters.
- Energy of the geothermal areas in Bardarbunga is now few hundred megawatts and the melting of water is estimated around 2 cubic meters per. second. Aerial observations on Tuesday November 4th show that the geothermal cauldrons in Báðarbunga have deepened by 5-8 meters over the past 11 days.
- Only 30 smaller earthquakes were detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun since Monday, none larger than M2,0.
- GPS measurements in the active area show minor changes, there are however signs of a slight decrease in the subsidence towards the Bárðarbunga volcano.
Air quality:
- Today (Wednesday) gas pollution from the eruption will travel towards northeast and subsequently to the northwest. Initially the pollution will be detected in the area of Austfirðir and subsequently as far west as Skagafjörður along the north coast. Tomorrow the the pollution will travel to the west and northwest coastal areas. Tomorrow evening the pollution will reach the coastal areas in the southwestern part of the country.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved by the meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. In addition there is an automated model-based forecast available, this is still under development: see Gas model (trial run, see disclaimer).
- A new online gas detector has been put up in Hofn in Hornafjordur. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 7 November.
Most recent photos from the eruption site are from 29. october. Photos from Morten S. Riishuus
03.11.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Since Friday, 31. October, 207 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera. Two earthquakes were bigger then M5,0, on 31. October at 21:32 an M5,2 earthquake was detected and M5,3 on 2. November at 16:02. In total 27 earthquakes between M4 and 5 were detected and 8 between M3 and 4.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as it has done over the last few weeks.
- Energy of the geothermal areas in Bardarbunga is now few hundred megawatts and the melting of water is estimated around 2 cubic meters per. second.
- Only 17 smaller earthquakes were detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun since Friday, there off ten from midnight today.
- GPS measurements in the active area show minor changes.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) gas pollution from the eruption will travel towards southwest. It can be expected in the area between Skeiðarárjökull in the east and Selfoss in the west. Tonight the pollution might travel further towards west and could reach the capital area and Reykjanes. Tonight, wind will decrease in Iceland, and tomorrow (Tuesday) calm winds are expected and cold weather. Under such circumstances, there is increased likelihood of high concentration of pollution. In the afternoon, light southerly and southwesterly breeze is forecast, and the areas north and east of the eruption will primarily be affected by pollution, although volcanic haze will probably be seen widely in Iceland on Tuesday.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- A new online gas detector has been put up in Hofn in Hornafjordur. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Wednesday 5 November.
31.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity. The lava field is now 65,7 squere kilometres.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. 200 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera over the last 48 hours. Just over ten earthquakes were bigger then magnitude M4,0. The largest one was M5,3 tonight at 01:30.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as it has done over the last few weeks. The total depression in the caldera is now about 42 meters.
- Energy of the geothermal areas in Bardarbunga is now few hundred megawatts and the melting of water is estimated around 2 cubic meters per. second. The water goes into Skjálfandafljót og Jökulsá á Fjöllum. The flow is too small to effect the total water flow of the rivers.
- Around 20 smaller earthquakes are detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun, all around magnitude M1,0 and smaller.
- GPS measurements in the active area show minor changes.
- A recommendation by the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection: The Scientific Advisory Board concludes that it is necessary to increase monitoring of SO4 so it is possible to evaluate the concentration of sulphuric acid particles and its potential influence on health.
Air quality:
- Considerable sulphuric dioxide (SO2) pollution has been recorded widely around Iceland over the last few days. It is believed that reduced energy in the volcanic plume may result in that the gas pollution does not reach the higher layers of the atmosphere.
- Today (Friday) eastern gales are forecast so gas pollution is expected mainly in W-Iceland. Tomorrow (Saturday) light easterly winds are expected so gas pollution may be expected northwest and west of the eruption.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- A new online gas detector has been put up in Hofn in Hornafjordur. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 3 November.
29.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. 130 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera over the last 48 hours. Around ten earthquakes were between magnitude M4-5. Two were larger then M5,0 on the 28. October. The former at 04:54 and the latter at 06:04.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as it has done over the last few weeks.
- Smaller earthquakes are detected in the dyke and at the eruption site in Holuhraun.
- GPS measurements in the active area show minor changes.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Wednesday) light variable winds is expected, and the gas pollution is mostly around the eruption site, but later over S- and SW-Iceland. Tomorrow (Thursday), wind will be easterly and the pollution is expected mainly westward.
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
- A new online gas detector has been put up in Hofn in Hornafjordur. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 31 October.
27.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Over 200 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera over the weekend. There off 44 larger then magnitude 3,0. The biggest ones were M5,3 at 05:54 on Sunday and at 01:05 tonight.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as it has done over the last few weeks. Observation from air on Friday show that the depression in the caldera is 40 meters.
- Geothermal heat is increasing in Bardarbunga. A cauldron in the southeast corner of Bardarbunga has deepened about 25 meters over a one month period. The depression is considered to be linked to the depression of the Bardarbunga caldera.
- Over 70 smaller earthquakes are detected in the dyke over the weekend. The biggest was M2.1 at 11:51 on Sunday.
- GPS measurements in the active area show minor changes.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) gas pollution can be expected east and southeast of the volcano, but mainly to the south tomorrow (Tuesday).
- The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved by meteorologist on duty. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast (trial run, see disclaimer) is also available.
- Over the weekend there was a technical breakdown in data transmission from web-connected gas detectors in east and north part of Iceland. The issue is being resolved.
- A new online gas detector will be put up in Höfn in Hornarfjörður tomorrow, Tuesday.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Wednesday 29 October.
24.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar intensity as last few weeks. The lava field is now 63 square kilometers.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Over 160 earthquakes have been detected in the caldera over the last two days. There off at least 15 larger then M4,0 and 45 between magnitude 3,0-3,9. The biggest ones were M4,8 at 13:21 on Wednesday and at 13:07 yesterday.
- Over 50 smaller earthquakes are detected in the dyke. The biggest was M1.9 at 02:48 tonight.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as it has done over the last few weeks.
- GPS measurements in the active area show minor changes.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Friday) gas pollution can be expected in the areas north and east of the eruption. Tomorrow (Saturday) the pollution will move first to the north and northwest and then to the west and southwest. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 27 October.
Photo: Ármann Höskuldsson
22.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection.
- Scientists in Holuhraun confirm that the volcanic eruption continues with similar intensity as last few days. The lava river runs from the northern end of the crater to the east with great force.
- Seismic activity in Tungnafellsjokull glacier had decreased but activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. At 8:36 Tuesday morning an M5,3 earthquake was measured in northern Bardarbunga. Over the last two days ten other earthquakes bigger then M4,0 were recorded in Bardarbunga and in total 31 earthquakes bigger then M3,0.
- Smaller earthquakes are measured in the dyke, most of them are in the area north of Dyngjujokull leading to the eruption site in Holuhraun.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as before.
- GPS measurements show minor movements. No great changes were detected.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Wednesday) and tomorrow (Thursday) volcanic gas pollution can be expected in the northern part of Iceland. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 24 October.
21. October 2014
Photo of Baugur, the main crater, seen from West. Taken in the evening of 21. October.
Photographer: Ármann Höskuldsson
20.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun was well visible on web-cameras tonight and into the morning. The eruption appeared to continue with similar intensity. Visibility in the area is now very bad and nothing to see on web-cameras.
- Seismic activity in Tungnafellsjokull glacier had decreased but activity in Bardarbunga is still strong. At 9:40 Saturday morning an M5,4 earthquake was measured in northern Bardarbunga, making it one of the biggest earthquakes that have been measured since the activity started. Over the last two days nine other earthquakes bigger then M4,0 were recorded in Bardarbunga.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as before.
- GPS measurements show minor movements. No great changes were detected.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday), gas pollution can be expected in the east and later southeast of Iceland. Tomorrow (Tuesday) gas pollution can be expected southeast of the eruption site. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Wednesday 22 October.
Map of the lava based on Radar images from the Coast guard from the 17th and 19th October. Total area is now 60,7 km2.
17.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection and the Directorate of Health.
- During last week the eruption continues at a similar intensity and with similar lava flow.
- Around 100 earthquakes have been measured in Iceland over the last 24 hours, there off 84 around Bardarbunga. Few earthquakes have been measured in the dyke but more earthquakes have been measured around Tungnafellsjokull glacier or around 40 over the same period. This is similar activity as the day before.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga show that the subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as before.
- Five earthquakes greater than M3.0 were recorded over the last 48 hours in or around the caldera. The largest one was M5.4 at 11:16 on Wednesday.
- GPS measurements show minor movements. No great changes were detected.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) east and northeast winds, gas pollution is expected in west and the southwest of the eruption site. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 20 October.
Dense degassing at eruptive fissure seen from NW. Photo taken yesterday, 16. Oct. at 15.53 by Morten S. Riishuus.
Photos from Morten S. Riishuus show us the eruptive fissure as seen from West. Note the increased height of central and southern section of the rampart. The upper photo was taken on 15. October at 17:45 and the lower photo was taken on 28. September at 14:05.
15.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection and the Directorate of Health.
During last week the eruption continues at a similar intensity and with similar lava flow.
- Around 130 earthquakes have been measured in Bardarbunga over the last 24 hours, which is an increase of what has been the norm over the last two weeks.
- The GPS station in the centre of Bardarbunga is back on-line. The subsidence of the caldera continues with similar rate as before, which is 30-40 cm per day. The subsidence is mainly in the northeast part of the caldera. The subsidence of the caldera is estimated to be 0,75 km3.
- 13 earthquakes greater than M3.0 were recorded over the last 48 hours in or around the caldera. The largest one were M4.8 at 18:51 yesterday.
- Little seismic activity is now detected in the northern part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show minor movements. No great changes were detected.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Wednesday) light easterly winds are expected. The gas pollution that has been hovering over the country as well as the gas erupted today will move slowly towards the west. The eastern part of Iceland will therefore be pollution free in the afternoon, but in most other parts of Iceland, pollution can be expected, and air quality can be poor in places. Tomorrow (Thursday) stronger easterly winds are expected. The gas from the eruption site will move towards west and northwest and can affect the following regions: Skagafjörður, Húnaflói, Vestfirðir, Breiðafjörður, Faxaflói. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 17 October.
13.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection and the Directorate of Health.
Scientists flew over the eruption site on Friday (10.10.2014). The lava field was measured and the grabens (depressions) in Dyngjujokull were photographed with radar.
- During last week the eruption continues at a similar intensity and with similar lava flow.
- The GPS station in the center of Bardarbunga is currently inactive so no data has been received over the last three days. Repair is on the way.
- 21 earthquakes greater than M3.0 were recorded over the last 48 hours in or around the caldera. The largest ones were M5.2 at 08:43 and 21:23 on Sunday.
- Little seismic activity is now detected in the northern part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show minor movements. No great changes were detected.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) light southerly winds are expected with the possibility of gas pollution north of the eruption site, from Eyjafjörður to Melrakkaslétta. Tomorrow (Tuesday), light variable winds are expected with the possibility of gas pollution to the north and northeast of the volcano, from Mývatn to Hallormsstaður. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Monday 13 October.
10.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection and the Directorate of Health.
During last week the eruption continues at a similar intensity and with similar lava flow as previous weeks.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with similar rate.
- 13 earthquakes greater than M3.0 were recorded since noon on Wednesday in or around the caldera. The largest ones were M5.2 at 15:24 on Wednesday and at 21:22 last night.
- Very little seismic activity is now detected in the northern part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show minor movements. No great changes were detected.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air Quality:
- It looks like light northerly winds today (Friday) with a chance of pollution south and southwest of the eruption, from Skeiðarársandur in the east, to Þorlákshöfn in the west. Tomorrow (Saturday) gas pollution can be expected south and southwest of the volcano, from Hellisheiði all the way east to Höfn in Hornafjörður. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
From today, the Scientific Advisory Board will meet on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. The next meeting will be held on Monday 13 October.
08.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The eruption continues at a similar intensity as previous days.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with similar rate.
- 23 earthquakes greater than M3.0 were recorded since noon on Monday in or around the caldera. The largest was M5.5 at 10:22 yesterday morning.
- Very little seismic activity is now detected in the northern part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show minor movements.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Wednesday) and tomorrow (Thursday) gas pollution is expected southwest of the volcano, from Eyjajöll to Reykjanes, including the area around Reykjavík and Hvalfjördur. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
From today, the Scientific Advisory Board will meet on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. The next meeting will be held on Friday 10 October.
The lava according to field observations 2 and 4 Oct. 2014, measurements of the surface area from 4 October (minimum) and a MODIS thermal image (NASA) taken early this morning (7 Oct. 03:27) which shows the most active parts within the lava field.
06.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The eruption continues at a similar intensity as previous days. The lava production is steady and running to the southeast from the crater into Jökulsá á Fjöllum.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with similar rate although the size of the largest earthquakes have subsided slightly.
- Seven earthquakes greater than M3.0 were recorded since noon yesterday in or around the caldera. The largest was M5.0 at 16:58 yesterday.
- Very little seismic activity is now detected in the northern part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show minor movements.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
- Earthquakes have been recorded near Kópasker over the last few days. Six earthquakes greater the M2,0 were recorded over the last 48 hours. The largest was M3,4 at 9:34 yesterday.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday) the gas pollution from the eruption is expected to be distributed towards west and southwest. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
From today, the Scientific Advisory Board will meet on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. The next meeting will be held on Wednesday 8 October.
MODIS satellite image at 13:04 today, 5 October 2014. The gas cloud from Holuhraun is easily visible over the ocean but harder to detect above ground. Firth Eyjafjörður lies N-S towards open sea. The blue tinge seems to follow that trail and then be carried westwards.
Photos from flight over the eruption site on the 4th of October from Morten S. Riishuus
03.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The eruption continues at a similar intensity as previous days. The lava production is steady and running to the southeast from the grader.
- Very high SO2 values were measured at the eruption site yesterday. It is estimated that 35.000 tons of SO2 are produced by the eruption daily.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with similar rate although the size of the largest earthquakes have subsided slightely over the last week.
- Eleven earthquakes greater than M3.0 were recorded since noon yesterday, the largest M4.8 at 01:41 yesterday.
- Smaller earthquakes are now detected in the northern part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show minor movements.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Friday) gas pollution is expected north and later east of the eruption site. Tomorrow (Saturday) gas pollution can be expected northwest of the eruption site. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
From today, the Scientific Advisory Board will meet on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. The next meeting will be held on Monday 6 October.
Photos from Robert Alexander Askew, taken 2. October at the eruption site.
Baugur west = photo of from the west looking east (plume to north)
Baugur = Looking northeast with Baugur and full flow field (plume to north)
01.10.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The eruption continues at a similar intensity as previous days.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga is similar to the last few days. Nine earthquakes greater than M3.0 were recorded since noon yesterday, the largest M4.8 at 19:24 yesterday. Fewer earthquakes are now detected in the northern part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show minor, irregular movements.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained by changing weather.
Air quality:
- Last night and earlier today a high concentration of SO2 was measured in Mývatnssveit. The highest 10-minute peak reached 5,800 micrograms. People are encouraged to follow closely the air-quality monitoring data, environmental conditions and guidelines for SO2 pollution.
- Today (Wednesday), the southerly wind will carry the gas pollution to the north, marked by Bárðardalur in the west to Hólasandur in the east, spreading further east tonight. Tomorrow, Thursday, the winds at the eruption site are forecasted to be light and variable; the pollution should then be contained to the eruption site. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
From today, the Scientific Advisory Board will meet on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. The next meeting will be held on Friday 3 October.
30.09.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga is similar to the last few days. Five earthquakes bigger then M3,0 were recorded since noon yesterday, the largest M5,5 at 13:42 yesterday.
- Smaller earthquakes were detected in north part of the dyke and around the eruption site. Weather conditions at the moment, however, make smaller earthquakes difficult to detect.
- GPS measurements show minor, irregular movements.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today and tomorrow (Tuesday and Wednesday) gas pollution from the volcanic eruption is expected towards the north, due to the southerly wind. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has a form on its web-page for the public to report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
Next meeting of The Scientific Advisory Board will be held Wednesday 1 October.
29.09.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The new lava field in Holuhraun was 44 square kilometres on last Saturday and still continues to grow. There are no signs of the eruption being in decline.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with slightly slower rate and is now around 40 cm pr. 24 hours.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues on similar rate as the last few days. Six earthquakes bigger then M3,0 were recorded since noon yesterday. The biggest one was M5,2 at 12:34 yesterday.
- Smaller earthquakes were detected in north part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show continuing slow movements.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.
Air quality:
- Today (Monday) gas pollution from the volcanic eruption is expected towards northwest of eruption site. Tomorrow (Tuesday) the pollution will affect areas to the north and northeast. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
Next meeting of The Scientific Advisory Board will be held on Tuesday, 30. September.
28. September 2014
Photos taken on the 28th of September: Morten S. Riishuus
Photo taken 17:33 on 26/9 by Morten S. Riishuus. Eruptive fissure and plume as seen from WNW.
26.09.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The new lava field continues to grow and has now crossed the track (in Flæður) leading into the Holuhraun area.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with same rate as before.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues on similar rate as the last few days. Five earthquakes bigger then M3,0 were recorded since noon yesterday. The biggest one was M5,0 at 16:35 yesterday afternoon.
- Smaller earthquakes were detected in north part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show continuing slow movements.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.
Air quality:
- Yesterday a high concentration of SO2 was measured around lake Myvatn (2000 microgram pr. cubic meter) and last night in Reydarfjordur (2600 microgram pr. cubic meter). The Environmental Agency of Iceland is waiting for shipment of SO2 meters that will be put up around Iceland.
- Pollution from the eruption is mostly expected to move towards east and southeast today (Friday) and tomorrow. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
Next meeting of The Scientific Advisory Board will be held on Monday, 29. September, unless deemed necessary. 
Photo from 25. September at 23:10. Morten S. Riishuus
25.09.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar rate as last few days. The eruption does not seem to be declining. The lava field continues to grow and the lava production continues with the same strength.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with same rate as before.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues on similar rate as the last few days. Ten earthquakes bigger then M3,0 were recorded since noon yesterday. The biggest one was M5,2 at 05:00 this morning.
- Smaller earthquakes were detected in north part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show continuing slow land depression towards the centre of Bardarbunga as has been the trend over the last two weeks.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.
Air quality:
- Yesterday a high concentration of SO2 was measured around lake Myvatn (2000 microgram pr. cubic meter) and last night in Reydarfjordur (2600 microgram pr. cubic meter). The Environmental Agency of Iceland is waiting for shipment of SO2 meters that will be put up around Iceland.
- Pollution from the eruption is mostly expected northeast of the eruption site today. Tomorrow (Friday) the pollution will move towards east and southeast. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Officewww.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
24.09.2014, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with same rate as before. The total depression, since the unrest started, is now between 27 and 28 meters.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues on similar rate as the last few days. Eight earthquakes bigger then M3,0 were recorded since noon yesterday. The biggest one was M5,2 at 08:14 this morning.
- Smaller earthquakes were detected in north part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- GPS measurements show that tectonic mo
- vements have been similar over last two weeks.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.
Air quality:
- A prediction from the Icelandic Met Office: Pollution from the eruption is mostly expected north of the eruption today (Wednesday). A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The plume yesterday afternoon. It was essentially blowing in the same direction as the main lava field is flowing. Photo:William Moreland.
23.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The lava now flows to southeast and northeast 3-5 km from the carders.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with same rate as before. The volume of the depression is now 0,6 cubic kilometres.
- Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues on similar rate as the last few days. Ten earthquakes bigger then M3,0 were recorded since noon yesterday. The biggest one was M5,2 at 04:00 this morning.
- Smaller earthquakes were detected in north part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.
Air quality:
- A prediction from the Icelandic Met Office: Pollution from the eruption is mostly expected east of the eruption today, but southeast of the eruption tonight. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
22.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with same rate as before.
- Big earthquakes are still detected in the Bardarbunga caldera. Since noon yesterday there have been 9 earthquakes bigger the M3,0. The biggest one was measured M5,5 at 10:51 yesterday morning making it the second biggest earthquake since this wave of seismic activity started on August 16. Smaller earthquakes were detected in north part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
- Earthquakes up to M4 have been measured under the north-north-west mountain side of Bardarbunga.
- No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.
Air quality:
- A prediction from the Icelandic Met Office: Pollution from the eruption is mostly expected northeast and east-northeast of the eruption today. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/ An interactive map showing the gas distribution can be seen at www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it. In the near future, there will be a page on the IMO’s webpage for this type of information.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
21.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar rate as last few days. The eruption does not seem to be declining. The lava production continues with the same strength. The lava flow is now around the centre of the lava field, which is now around 37 square kilometres.
Scientists in the filed estimate that around 90% of the SO2 gas coming from the eruption originates in the active craters and only 10% from the lava field. Scientists have also become aware of dead birds around the eruptions site.
The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with same rate as before.
Big earthquakes are still detected in the Bardarbunga caldera. Since noon yesterday there have been 18 earthquakes bigger the M3,0. The biggest one was measured M5,0 at 17:11 yesterday afternoon. Smaller earthquakes were detected in north part of the dyke and around the eruption site.
No change was detected in water monitoring that cannot be explained with changing weather.
Air quality:
- SO2 pollution has been reported around Iceland over the weekend but no serious incident has been reported. People are encouraged to familiarise oneself with instructions from health authorities. Further instructions can be found below.
- A prediction from the Icelandic Met Office: Pollution from the eruption is mostly expected north of the eruption today, but can affect a larger area, especially early on before the southerly wind increases. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Officewww.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- The Environment Agency has put up two new SO2 measuring stations in Leirubakki in Landssveit and in Vopnafjörður. Data from these stations can be found on www.loftgæði.is
- The Department of Civil Protection and the Environmental Agency has bought 40 new handheld measuring equipment that will be distributed around Iceland with density in the Eastfjörds.
- nformation and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it. In the near future, there will be a page on the IMO’s webpage for this type of information.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
20.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
- The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar rate as last few days.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with same rate as before.
- Big earthquakes are still detected in the Bardarbunga caldera. Since noon yesterday there have been 3 earthquakes bigger the M3,0. The biggest one was measured M5,1 at 01:10 tonight. Smaller earthquakes were detected in Dyngjujokull glacier and in north part of the dyke.
- GPS monitoring continue to show subsidence in the Bardarbunga caldera and crustal movements indicate that the volume of magma in the dyke is still slightly increasing.
- No change was detected in water monitoring.
Air quality:
- SO2 pollution has been reported around Iceland this morning but no serious incident has been reported. People are encouraged to familiarise oneself with instructions from health authorities. Further instructions can be found below.
- A prediction from the Icelandic Met Office: Pollution from the eruption is mostly expected in the east and southeast but haze connected to the eruption is likely in a larger area. A map showing the gas forecast can be found on the web page of the Icelandic Met Office www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- The Environment Agency has put up two new SO2 measuring stations in Leirubakki in Landssveit and in Vopnafjörður. Data from these stations can be found on www.loftgæði.is
- The Department of Civil Protection and the Environmental Agency has bought 40 new handheld measuring equipment that will be distributed around Iceland with density in the Eastfjörds.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it. In the near future, there will be a page on the IMO’s webpage for this type of information.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The eastern part of the lava has not been accessible since the lava front reached Jökulsá á Fjöllum glacial river, but today a flight with the Coast Guard helicopter made it possible to estimate the outline of the southeast part of the lava flow - Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson.
Photo from the flight: Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson
19.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar rate as last few days.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with same rate as before.
- Seismic activity has been rather intensive over the last 24 hours. The biggest was M5,3 at 14:21 yesterday and another one was measured M4,7 at 06:44 this morning. In total 10 earthquakes larger then M3,0 were detected in Bardarbunga since our last meeting. Smaller earthquakes were detected in Dyngjujokull glacier and in north part of the dyke.
- GPS monitoring continue to show irregularity in in the crustal movements over the last few days. This sign could indicate that the magma movement under Bardarbunga is changing.
- No change was detected in water monitoring.
- Chemical analysis and modelling, of the magma coming up in the Holuhraun eruption, indicates that the magma is coming up from a depth of more than 10 km.
Air quality:
- A prediction from the Icelandic Met Office: Today, the airpollution from the eruption site in Holuhraun is mostly to the north from Lake Mývatn in the west to Vopnafjordur bay in the east. This afternoon, the wind direction turns more westerly and the pollution then covers the eastern part of Iceland
- The Icelandic Met Office has published an interactive map showing gas pollution prediction. The map can be found here: www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/gasdreifing
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun NÝTT. Few notifications have been registered of the page, including reports from the Westfjords.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- The Environment Agency is working on getting more measuring equipment to better monitor the gases coming from the volcanic eruption.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it. In the near future, there will be a page on the IMO’s webpage for this type of information.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
18.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar rate as yesterday.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues.
- Seismic activity has been rather intensive over the last 24 hours. Yesterday 13 earthquakes larger then M3,0 were detected in Bardarbunga. The biggest was M5,2 at 18:09 last night. In total 7 earthquakes larger then M3,0 were detected since noon yesterday. Smaller earthquakes were detected in Dyngjujokull glacier and in north part of the dyke.
- GPS monitoring continue to show irregularity in in the crustal movements over the last few days. This sign could indicate that the magma movement under Bardarbunga is changing.
Air quality:
- A prediction from the Icelandic Met Office: Today (Thursday) gas pollution is expected in the north central highlands and northwest to Skagafjörður and Húnaflói. Tomorrow (Friday) pollution is expected in north Iceland from Strandir to Eyjafjörður, in north central highlands and in east Iceland from Hornafjörður north to Egilsstaðir. A larger pollution area cannot be ruled out. Valid until midnight tomorrow, Friday.
- The Icelandic Met Office has published an interactive map showing gas pollution prediction. The map can be found here: http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/calpuff/2014/09/18/00/calpuff_island_so2.html
- The Icelandic Met Office has also opened a web page were people can report if they have detected gas pollution. A link to the page can be found on the Icelandic version of the web page under Skrá mengun NÝTT. Few notifications have been registered of the page, including reports from the Westfjords.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- The Environment Agency is working on getting more measuring equipment to better monitor the gases coming from the volcanic eruption.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it. In the near future, there will be a page on the IMO’s webpage for this type of information.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
Photo: Gro Birkefeldt Møller Pedersen
17.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
Measurements show that the lava field in Holuhraun continues to expand. There are no signs of decreasing lava production.
- The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with the rate of about 50 cm over the last 24 hours.
- Seismic activity has been rather intensive over the last 24 hours. Yesterday 7 earthquakes larger then M3,0 were detected in Bardarbunga. The biggest were M5,4 and M4,8 last night. Smaller earthquakes were detected in Dyngjujokull glacier and in north part of the dyke.
- GPS monitoring show irregularity in in the crustal movements over the last few days. This sign could indicate that the magma movement under Bardarbunga is changing.
- No change has been detected in water measurement.
Air quality:
- A prediction from the Icelandic Met Office: Easterly winds with the polluted area to the west and southwest, marked by Langjokull glacier in the west and Tindfjoll in the south. Valid until noon tomorrow, Thursday.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio. It will also be endeavored/seeked to broadcast the forecasts on national television.
- The Environment Agency is working on getting more measuring equipment to better monitor the gases coming from the volcanic eruption.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it. In the near future, there will be a page on the IMO’s webpage for this type of information.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
16. September 2014
The eruption site at 18:40, 16. September. Photo: Freysteinn Sigmundsson
16.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The eruptive activity at Holuhraun continues at similar intensity as last few days.
- The subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera continues with the rate of about 50 cm over the last 24 hours.
- Seismic activity is similar to what it has been in the past few days. The main activity is in Bárðarbunga and in the Dyngjujökull glacier around the dyke. The biggest earthquake since midnight, of magnitude 3,4 was detected today at 09:13 in the North East of Bárðarbunga.
- GPS monitoring shows insignificant crustal movements north of Vatnajökull.
- No change has been detected in water measurement.
Air quality:
- Yesterday air pollution was reported in Kópasker.
- Today (Tuesday) light southwesterly winds are expected. Areas northeast of the eruption site can be affected by pollution. The area is marked by Mt. Herðubreið in the north to Mt. Kárahnjúkar in the south.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will read forecasts for sulphuric gases along with weather news on the national radio and TV.
- The Environment Agency is working on getting more measuring equipment to better monitor the gases coming from the volcanic eruption.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it. In the near future, there will be a page on the IMO’s webpage for this type of information.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- Subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops and the eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujökull, resulting in a jökulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jökulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The lava flowing into Jökulsá á Fjöllum. Photo: Elísabet Pálmadóttir
15.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - from the Scientific Advisory Board
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Icelandic Directorate of Health was also present.
Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection are in attached Factsheet in PDF (0.3 Mb).
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange'.
14.09.2014, 12:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. A representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland was also present.
The eruptive activity at Holuhraun continues at similar intensity. The lava flows at slower rates than it did yesterday. The lava is now spreading more to the sides and there is less visible activity is in the eruptive craters.
The subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera continues and is now up to 23 meters.
Scientists flying over the area saw new tongues of lava breaking out from the main lava stream towards the east and west. The largest one of these lava tongues stretches towards the east and had become 300 m wide and 2 km long at 18:00 yesterday. An eruption cloud reaches 4 km in height but lowers with distance from the eruption site.
Seismic activity is similar to what it has been in the past days but earthquakes are starting to go down in numbers and magnitude. Over 60 earthquakes have been detected since midnight. Most of them have been by Bárðarbunga and the dyke under Dyngjujökull. The biggest earthquake, of magnitude 4.0, was detected today at around 07:00 in the south of Bárðarbunga. Three other earthquakes of 3.0 in magnitude or more have been detected today.
GPS monitoring shows continuing subsidence in Bárðarbunga and insignificant crustal movements north of Vatnajökull around the dyke.
Air quality in urban areas in the East of Iceland:
High air pollution was detected yesterday in Egilsstaðir and Reyðarfjörður. Forecasts indicate that the gas cloud will blow towards the north in the next 24 hours. High concentrations of sulphuric gases can be expected in Mývatnssveit, Kelduhverfi, Tjörnes, Húsavík, Aðaldalur and Reykjahverfi.
Instructions:
- People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
- Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is and www.landlaeknir.is
- The Icelandic Met Office will read forecasts for sulphuric gases along with weather news on the national radio and TV.
- The Environment Agency is working on getting more measuring equipment to better monitor the gases coming from the volcanic eruption.
- Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it. In the near future, there will be a page on the IMO's webpage for this type of information.
Air quality at the eruption site:
- Gas emissions at the eruption site remain high. As local gas concentrations at the site can be life threatening, people at the eruption site should wear gas masks and gas meters. At the eruption site, local wind anomalies can occur due to thermal convection from the hot lava. This makes the conditions on site extremely dangerous as winds can change suddenly and unpredictably. Scientists in the field have gas meters for their security.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- Subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops and the eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujökull, resulting in a jökulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jökulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange' and the code for Askja is ‘green'.
13.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. Representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland and the Chief Epidemiologist and the Directorate of Health, were also present.
The eruptive activity at Holuhraun and the the subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera floor continues at similar intensity.
The subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera and seismic activity continues the same as the last few days. The GPS station on top of Bárðarbunga shows a subsidence of the caldera around half a meter over the last 24 hours.
The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun is still ongoing with similar strength as last few days. Lava flows at similar rates as yesterday towards East into Jökulsá á Fjöllum.
The lava filed was measured yesterday afternoon to be 24,5 square kilometres.
Accumulated volume of the lava is now estimated to be at least 200 million cubic meters.
Gas cloud from the eruption drifts to the east. High level of SO2, sulphur dioxide, was measured at Reyðarfjörður last night around 10:00 o’clock. The highest value measured were just under 4000 micrograms per cubic meter. These are the highest values measured in Iceland. High level, 685 micrograms per cubic meter, was also measured in Egilsstaðir.
Warning was sent via the GSM system to all mobile phones in Fjarðarbyggð.
Air quality in urban areas in the East of Iceland:
o Forecasts indicate that high concentrations of sulphuric gases may be expected in the northern part of the Eastern fjords, Fljótsdalur, Hérað, Jökuldalur, and on Langanes. Forecast indicates that concentration may become higher later today. The Environment Agency will set up new monitoring stations in Akureyri and in South Iceland. Geographical conditions must be considered when estimating air quality.
Instructions:
o People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close the windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.loftgaedi.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
o Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites www.ust.is andwww.landlaeknir.is
o The Icelandic Met Office will read forecasts for sulphuric gases along with weather news on the national radio and TV.
o The Environment Agency is working on getting more measuring equipment to better monitor the gases coming from the volcanic eruption.
Air quality at the eruption site:
o Gas emissions at the eruption site remain high. As local gas concentrations at the site can be life threatening, people at the eruption site should wear gas masks and gas meters. At the eruption site, local wind anomalies can occur due to thermal convection from the hot lava. This makes the conditions on site extremely dangerous as winds can change suddenly and unpredictably. Scientists in the field carry gas meters for their security.
o Degassing from the volcanic eruption is now estimated to be up to 750 kg/sec.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
o Subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops and the eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually.
o Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujökull, resulting in a jökulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
o Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jökulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The southern most crater "Suðri". Photograph: Ármann Höskuldsson
12.09.2014, 11:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. Representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland and the Chief Epidemiologist and the Directorate of Health, were also present.
The eruptive activity at Holuhraun continues at similar intensity. Lava flows at similar rates as yesterday. The lava is flowing towards East into Jökulsá á Fjöllum, slightly narrowing its path. No explosive activity due to the lava and river water interaction has been observed, but steam rises from the lava.
Scientists flying over the Bárðarbunga area yesterday reported no new changes in the surface.
Air quality in urban areas in the East of Iceland:
Forecasts indicate that high concentrations of sulphuric gases may be expected in the northern part of the Eastern fjords, Fljótsdalur, Hérað, Jökuldalur, and Vopnafjörður. Forecast indicates that concentration may become highest in Hérað later today. High concentrations could occur in other areas as well. The Environment Agency will set up new monitoring stations in Akureyri and in South Iceland today. Geographical conditions must be considered when estimating air quality. People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close the windows and turn off air conditioning. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage loftgaedi.is. The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environment Agency can be found on their web-sites.
Air quality at the eruption site:
Gas emissions at the eruption site remain high. As local gas concentrations at the site can be life threatening, people at the eruption site should wear gas masks and gas meters. At the eruption site, local wind anomalies can occur due to thermal convection from the hot lava. This makes the conditions on site extremely dangerous as winds can change suddenly and unpredictably. Scientists in the field carry gas meters for their security.
Earthquake activity in the caldera of Bárðarbunga remains similar to that of the last days. Epicenters are distributed along the northern and south-eastern caldera fault. Earthquake activity at the dyke tip has decreased. More than 50 events have been detected since midnight. Low frequency tremor has decreased.
GPS observations:
- There are minor crustal movements around the dyke supporting the assumption that the amount of magma flowing into the dyke slightly exceeds the flow of magma erupted to the surface.
- Considering the time period since the beginning of the eruption slow movements towards the Bárðarbunga caldera indicate continuing subsidence of the caldera.
- A new GPS station was installed on top of Bárðarbunga yesterday to monitor the subsidence of the caldera floor.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- Subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops and the eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujökull, resulting in a jökulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jökulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’ and the code for Askja is ‘green’.
11.09.2014, 11:45 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. Representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland and the Chief Epidemiologist and the Directorate of Health, were also present.
The eruptive activity at Holuhraun continues at similar intensity. Lava flows at similar rates as yesterday. The lava is flowing towards East but widens slightly towards North. The main flow follows the river bed of Jökulsá á Fjöllum. No explosive activity due to the lava and river water interaction has been observed, but steam rises from the lava.
Air quality in urban areas in the East of Iceland:
Forecasts indicate that high concentrations of sulphuric gases may be expected in the northern part of the Eastern fjords, Fljótsdalur, Hérað, Jökuldalur, and Vopnafjörður. High concentrations could occur in other areas as well. People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close the windows and turn off air conditioning. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage loftgaedi.is. The Meteorological Office issues warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environmental Agency can be found on their web-sites.
Air quality at the eruption site:
Gas emissions at the eruption site remain high. As local gas concentrations at the site can be life threatening, people at the eruption site should wear gas masks and gas meters. At the eruption site, local wind anomalies can occur due to thermal convection from the hot lava. This makes the conditions on site extremely dangerous as winds can change suddenly and unpredictably
Earthquake activity in the caldera of Bárðarbunga remains similar to that of the last days. Epicenters are distributed along the northern and south-eastern caldera fault. An earthquake of M 5.3 occurred at 00:07 h. Earthquake activity at the dyke tip has decreased. More than 30 events have been detected since midnight. Low frequency tremor is similar to what has been observed in the last few days.
GPS observations show insignificant crustal movements supporting the assumption that the amount of magma flowing into the dyke continues to be similar to the magma erupted to the surface. Considering the time period since the beginning of the eruption slight movements towards the Bárðarbunga caldera indicate continuing subsidence of the caldera.
Three scenarios are considered most likely:
- Subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops and the eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujökull, resulting in a jökulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jökulhlaup.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’ but the code for Askja has been changed to ‘green’.
10. September 2014
10.09.2014, 11:45 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. Representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland and the Chief Epidemiologist and the Directorate of Health, were also present.
The eruptive activity at Holuhraun continues at similar intensity. Lava flows to the East at similar rates as yesterday. The lava is flowing in the river bed of Jökulsá á Fjöllum. No explosive activity due to the lava and river water interaction has been observed, but steam rises from the lava.
Air quality in urban areas in East of Iceland:
- Concentrations of SO2, comparable to those measured in the last few days, could increase slightly today in the east due to the direction of the wind. Efforts to increase gas monitoring in inhabited areas are ongoing. Data from The Environmental Agency SO2 monitoring stations in Reyjahlíð, Egilsstaðir and Reyðarfjörður are accessible on the web-site of the institute. Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environmental Agency can be found on their web-sites.
Air quality at the eruption site:
- Gas emissions at the eruption site remain high. As local gas concentrations at the site can be life threatening, people at the eruption site should wear gas masks and gas meters.
- Scientists on the site have had to leave the area repeatedly as concentrations of gas reached dangerous levels due to sudden changes in wind conditions.
- At the eruption site, local wind anomalies can occur due to thermal convection from the hot lava. This makes the conditions on site extremely dangerous as winds can change suddenly and unpredictably.
- Around 80 earthquakes have been recorded since midnight. The largest two earthquakes, M 5.5 and M 4.9 occurred on the northern rim of Bárðarbunga caldera. Low frequency tremor is similar to what has been observed in the last few days.
- GPS observations show insignificant crustal movements supporting the assumption that the amount of magma flowing into the dyke continues to be similar to the magma erupted to the surface.
Three scenarios are still considered most likely:
- Subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops and the eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujökull, resulting in a jökulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
- Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jökulhlaup.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’ and the code for Askja at ‘yellow’.
09.09.2014, 11:45 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection. Representative from The Environment Agency of Iceland and the Chief Epidemiologist and the Directorate of Health, were also present
The eruptive activity at Holuhraun continues at similar intensity
Lava flows to the East at similar rates as yesterday. The lava is now flowing in the river bed of Jökulsá á Fjöllum. No explosive activity due to the lava and river water interaction has been observed, but steam rises from the lava.
Air quality in urban areas in East of Iceland:
- Concentrations of SO2, comparable to those measured yesterday in Reyðarfjörður, may affect people with underlying respiratory problems although others should not experience any significant discomfort.
- Efforts to increase the gas monitoring in inhabited areas are on-going. Data from newly installed SO2 monitoring stations will be accessible later today. Yesterday 8th September no chemical pollution, related to the eruption, was detected and none is expected today. Instructions from the office of the Chief Epidemiologist and The Environmental Agency can be found on their web-sites.
Air quality at the eruption site:
- Gas emissions at the eruption site remain high. As local gas concentrations at the site can be life threatening, people at the eruption site should wear gas masks and gas meters.
- Scientists on the site, have had to leave the area repeatedly as concentrations of gas reached dangerous levels, due to sudden changes in wind conditions.
- At the eruption site local wind anomalies can occur due to thermal convection from the hot lava. This makes the conditions on site extremely dangerous as winds can change suddenly and unpredictably.
Around 150 earthquakes have been recorded since midnight. The largest two earthquakes, 3.8 and 5.2 in magnitude occurred on the northern rim of Bárðabunga Caldera. Small but continuous low frequency tremor has been observed for the last few days.
GPS observations show insignificant crustal movements supporting the assumption that the amount of magma flowing into the dyke continues to be similar to the magma erupted to the surface.
Four scenarios are still considered most likely:
- The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
- The dyke could reach the Earth’s surface at different locations outside the glacier. Lava flow and/or explosive activity cannot be excluded.
- The intrusion again reaches the surface under the glacier leading to a significant subglacial eruption. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
- An eruption in Bárðarbunga. The eruption could cause an outburst flood and possibly an explosive, ash-producing activity. In the event of a subglacial eruption. Flooding would most likely affect Jökulsá á Fjöllum, but it is not possible to exclude flood paths to Skjálfandafljót, Kaldakvísl, Skaftá and Grímsvötn.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’ and the code for Askja at ‘yellow’.
On the petrology of the Holuhraun lava - Guðmundur Heiðar Guðfinnsson and Sigurður Jakobsson
Inspection of rock samples from Holuhraun lava indicates that the erupted magma contains minor amount of plagioclase phenocrysts (<1%) and even scarcer olivine phenocrysts. Chemical analyses show that the magma is slightly olivine-normative tholeiite (0-5 wt% ol).
A few samples have been cut and polished for inspection, photography and chemical analyses with a scanning electron microscope equipped with a backscatter-electron detector and an energy-dispersive spectrometer (SEM-EDS). It is seen that the samples have crystallized to a variable degree, but in general the groundmass mostly comprises subophitic intergrowth of plagioclase and augite (Figure 1), along with smaller amounts of olivine. All samples also contain variable amounts of interstitial glass, whereas Fe-Ti oxides are absent or in very small amounts only. This suggests that the samples had quenched before Fe-Ti oxides could form.
Chemical analyses with the SEM-EDS instrument indicate that the groundmass plagioclase has the composition An75-80, while olivine and augite have Mg number 75-80. The institial glass has become quartz normative. The composition of two plagioclase phenocrysts that were measured was about An84 and An90.
Immiscible sulfides globules, noted in highly glassy samples of the first eruption, persist in later, more crystallized samples of the newer Holuhraun lava (Figure 2). The composition of the globules seems to vary to some degree, but Fe is always the most abundant cation, followed by Cu and Ni and minor amounts of Co. The relative abundance of Cu and Ni is varies significantly, even in a single globule.
 |
 |
Figure 1. SEM-EDS images of sample WM1491-4 from Holuhraun lava showing intergrowth of plagioclase, augite and olivine along with some interstitial glass; a) backscatter-electron image; b) X-ray map for Mg with olivine as the brightest mineral, then augite and plagioclase darkest .
 |
 |
Figure 2. SEM-EDS images of sample KPRW-5 from Holuhraun lava showing intergrowth of plagioclase and augite, and some interstitial glass and a few sulfide globules; a) backscatter-electron image; b) X-ray map for S revealing the presence of sulfide globules as bright spots.
Bárðarbunga subsidence - new data
Surveying of the subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera was done this morning from the civil avaiation aircraft TF-FMS using radar profiling. The results show that the subsidence, first detected on Friday 5 September, has reached 18,5 m, of which 2,5-3 m occurred over the last three days. The events in Bárðarbunga can be called a slow caldera collapse. At this moment the total subsidence is small compared to known caldera collapses elsewhere but it is also impossible to say how long this event will last.
Update from IMO 7. September 2014 at 7:36 pm
Today most of the earthquakes have been located in Bárðarbunga caldera, at the eruption site, in Dyngjujökull and at Herðubreiðatögl. The two largest events occurred this morning (M4.6 and M5.4) at 3:27 and 7:07 UTC in Bárðarbunga caldera.
We have recorded about 155 earthquakes since this morning and the seismic tremor has been lower than yesterday .
Earth scientists in the field report that the eruptive activity in the northernmost part of the north-fissure has no more lava fountaining, whereas the central craters are the most active like previous days. The new fissure in the south shows no visible activity since this afternoon.
An overview of Bárðarbunga seismicity and dike propagation, August 16th-September 7th. - Bryndís Brandsdóttir
Revised earthquake locations from IMO, circle size represents earthquake magnitude. Larger events are confined to the northern and southern caldera rim of Bárðarbunga, the caldera itself is mostly devoid of earthquakes. Seismicity in northern Dyngjujökull and Holuhraun has decreased markedly following the initiation of the second Holuhraun eruption (shaded area).
07.09.2014, 13:32 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection.
The eruptive activity at Holuhraun has not decreased. Magma flow is between 100 and 200 m3/s. The lava advances by about 1 km/day and its area yesterday afternoon was around 16 km2.
o The eruption sites are the same as before. The eruptive intensity on the southern fissure that opened on Friday is much less than on the northern fissure that has been active since the beginning of the eruption.
o The lava tongue now extends 11 km to the north and has reached the western main branch of Jökulsá á Fjöllum river. However, no explosive activity due to the lava and river water interaction has been observed, but steam rises from the lava.
o A white eruption cloud rises 3 - 4 km and is directed to the north and northeast.
Seismicity in the area is similar to yesterday. Around 140 earthquakes have been recorded since midnight. At 03:30 this morning, a magnitude 4.6 earthquake occurred at the rim of the Bárðarbunga caldera. Shortly after 07:00, a magnitude 5.4 earthquake occurred on the rim, one of the largest recorded since the start of the present activity.
The amount of magma flow into the dyke seems to be similar to the magma erupting from the fissures. GPS stations outside the glacier record insignificant crustal movements.
Four scenarios are still likely:
o The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
o The dyke could reach the Earth’s surface at different locations outside the glacier. Lava flow and/or explosive activity cannot be excluded.
o The intrusion again reaches the surface under the glacier and possibly leads to a significant eruption. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
o An eruption in Bárðarbunga. The eruption could cause an outburst flood and possibly an explosive, ash-producing activity. In the event of a subglacial eruption, it is most likely that flooding would affect Jökulsá á Fjöllum. However it is not possible to exclude the following flood paths: Skjálfandafljót, Kaldakvísl, Skaftá and Grímsvötn.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office:
The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’ and the code for Askja at ‘yellow’.
Pele ball or Pele´s hair: example of what there is rolling around at the eruption site. Photo Thor Thordarson
7th September 2014 - 07:00. From Thor Thordarson.
The lava has now reached to the main channel of the glacial river Jökulsá á Fjöllum. Steaming occurs there.
Update from IMO 6. September 2014 at 22.01
Earthquake activity today has been in similar places as recent days, in Bárðarbunga caldera, at the eruption site, Dyngjujökull and at Herðubreiðatögl. Two earthquakes 4,4 and 4,3 were recorded in Bárðarbunga caldera in the afternnon, at 14:32 and 18:43 respectively, but this morning at 05:40 a magnitude 5 was measured in a similar location. The total number of recorded earthquakes since midnight is around 170. Earth scientists at the eruption site think that the eruptive activity is similar as yesterday. Seismic tremor has low amplitudes today .
06.09.2014, 13:20 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection.
In the surveillance flight yesterday the ice-surface at Bárðarbunga was measured with the radar system of Isavia’s aircraft. The measurements show large changes on the ice-surface. Up to 15 m subsidence has occurred in the centre of the caldera, which corresponds to a volume change of 0.25 km3. The shape of the subsidence area is in accordance with the elevation of the caldera floor having lowered by that amount.
o Subsidence of this order has not been observed in Iceland since measurements of crustal movements started around the middle of last century.
o No signs of eruption or increased geothermal activity in the Bárðarbunga caldera are observed.
o The volume of the subsidence in Bárðarbunga is considerable portion of the total volume of the magma dyke.
o The most probable explanation is that this subsidence is related to the recent high seismic activity and subsurface magma flow to the northeast.
In the surveillance flight yesterday a shallow, wide depression was observed on the surface of Dyngujökull, 10 km from the glacier edge. Another depression 6 km from the Dyngjujökull ice edge, which has been monitored over the last few days has deepened and is now 35 m deep.
o It is likely that these depressions are sings of small and short sub glacial eruptions.
The eruptive activity at Holuhraun is the same as yesterday.
o Two eruptive fissures are active. The main activity is on the same fissure that has been active since the eruption began. In addition the fissure that opened yesterday morning is still active.
o The lava now extends 10 km ENE and has just under one km to reach Jökulsá á Fjöllum river.
Seismic activity has decreased since yesterday. Approximately 90 earthquakes have been detected since midnight. One earthquake, of magnitude 5 was located in the Bárðarbunga caldera at 05:40 UTC. 14 earthquakes of magnitudes greater than 5 have been located since 16 of August.
Deformation changes since yesterday, measured with GPS north of Vatnajökull are small.
Four scenarios are still likely:
o The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
o The dyke could reach the Earth’s surface at different locations outside the glacier. Lava flow and/or explosive activity cannot be excluded.
o The intrusion again reaches the surface under the glacier and possibly leads to a significant eruption. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
o An eruption in Bárðarbunga. The eruption could cause an outburst flood and possibly an explosive, ash-producing activity. In the event of a subglacial eruption, it is most likely that flooding would affect Jökulsá á Fjöllum. However it is not possible to exclude the following flood paths: Skjálfandafljót, Kaldakvísl, Skaftá and Grímsvötn.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office:
The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’ and the code for Askja at ‘yellow’.
New mapping of the surface of Bárðarbunga caldera indicates up to 14 m of subsidence inside the caldera. This map is obtained by differencing radar images (Lidar) taken in 2011, surface observation in June 2014 and new airborne radar altimeter observations from Sept. 5.
A new map of the extent of the lava updated this morning. The map was compiled by Ingibjörg Jónsdóttir (IES) using information from our scientists in the field.
The following is a summary of a report from Thor Thordarson, our volcanologist who is now in the field.
The main lava flow continues to lengthen toward NE, and a smaller tounge toward west, that now covers an intended parking lot. The main eruptive activity is stil on the fissure that opened on Aug. 31. A new fissure became active early Sept. 5 (seen by a reporter at 7am). Initially, there were two fissures active, but now only the northern one is erupting. Yesterday afternoon the activity on the new fissure was concentrated along ~400 m segment.
There are several faults on the eastern and western margin of the graben that has been forming between the eruptive fissures and the edge of Dyngjujökull glacier. Thor estimates a throw of ~8 m on one of these faults on the western side (photo from Sept. 3).
Major element composition of lava erupted in the second Holuraun phase (ICP). Preliminary results.
5th September 2014 12:20 - from the Scientific Advisory Board
Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
- At about 7:00 UTC this morning RÚV reported that new eruptive fissures had opened to the south of the on-going eruption.
- At 8:30, a surveillance flight with scientists from the IMO and University of Iceland observed the following:
-
- Two new eruptive fissures formed south of the previous eruption site in Holuhraun, in a graben, that had formed above the intrusion, about 2km away from Dyngjujökull.
- The eruptive fire fountains from the new fissures are substantially smaller than in the older fissure. Steam and gas rises in a south eastern direction from the fissure.
- The cauldron in Dyngjujökull seems to have grown deeper since the last observation.
- No changes are visible in Bárðarbunga.
- Substantial amounts of SO2 are still being released to the atmosphere in association with the eruption.
- Conductivity measurements show a slight increase in conductivity in Jökulsá á Fjöllum.
- Some tremor was detected on seismometers shortly after 3:00 UTC last night. It decreased at about 6:00 UTC this morning.
- Considerable activity is in the northern fissure (fissure 1) and the height of the steam cloud is about 15,000 feet.
- There are no indications of the eruption in Holuhraun being in decline. The lava from fissure 1 continues to flow to the east north east and has grown in area since yesterday.
- Seismicity in the area is similar to yesterday's activity. About 170 earthquakes were detected since midnight. Two earthquakes of magnitudes 4,4 and 5,3 were detected in the Bárðarbunga caldera region at around midnight UTC.
- GPS displacements have continues to decrease and are now within uncertainty limits.
- Four scenarios are still likely:
-
- The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
- The dike could reach the Earth's surface at different locations outside the glacier. Lava flow and/or explosive activity cannot be excluded.
- The intrusion reaches the surface and another eruption occurs where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
- An eruption in Bárðarbunga. The eruption could cause an outburst flood and possibly an explosive, ash-producing activity. In the event of a subglacial eruption, it is most likely that flooding would affect Jökulsá á Fjöllum. However it is not possible to exclude the following flood paths: Skjálfandafljót, Kaldakvísl, Skaftá and Grímsvötn.
- Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office:
The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange' and the code for Askja at ‘yellow'.
New eruption fissure has opened in Holuhraun! - At about 7:00 UTC this morning RÚV reported that new eruptive fissures had opened to the south of the on-going eruption.
Photos from flight this morning over the new eruption fissure in Holuhraun. First photo shows the "older" fissure in the background, but that one is still very active. Photos from Þóra Árnadóttir
4. September 2014
04.09.2014, 12:20 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection.
- The intensity of the ongoing eruption in Holuhraun is not declining. Lava is flowing toward ENE and it has been elongated considerably since yesterday. Since this morning, a preliminary estimate of lava field extension is about 10.8 km2.
- Seismic activity is still detected in the northern part of the dyke intrusion, along the eruption site and extending south below Dyngjujökull. Event rates are lower than in recent days, 180 earthquakes have been detected since midnight until noon. Four events larger than M4 have been detected in Bárðarbunga caldera. The largest one (M4.8) occurred last night at 03:09.
- The low frequency tremor seen yesterday disappeared last night but started again this morning, however minor compared to yesterday. The source of the tremor is not certain however possible explanation could be magma-water interaction although this interpretation has currently not been confirmed by other observations.
- There are no signs of a subglacial eruption under Dyngjujökull. No obvious changes such as increased water flow or cauldrons on the glacier surface were observed from scientists on board TF-SIF yesterday. Water meters in Jökulsá á Fjöllum do not show any unusual changes in discharge and electric conductivity.
- The GPS time series indicate slower rate of deformation in the last 24 hours. The current deformation pattern north of Vatnajökull still suggests volume increase in the dyke. No significant signs of deformation are observed around Bárðarbunga.
- There have been no observations of ash-fall away from the eruption site. Ash production is negligible.
- Sulphur dioxide emission continues. Low-wind speed condition is present in the area at the moment. Based on radar images the eruption cloud from today (composed of steam and volcanic gases) has not drifted far away and is mostly concentrated around the eruption site. Stations measuring SO2 further away from the eruption site are showing concentration below health and safety thresholds. Since this morning, the cloud reaches 6 km of altitude. The volcanic cloud will drift towards south in the coming hours due to wind rotation.
- Four scenarios are likely:
- The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
- The dike could reach the Earth’s surface causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Lava flow and (or) explosive activity cannot be excluded.
- The intrusion reaches the surface and another eruption occurs where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
- An eruption in Bárðarbunga. The eruption could cause an outburst flood and possibly an explosive, ash-producing activity. In the event of a subglacial eruption, it is most likely that flooding would affect Jökulsá á Fjöllum. However it is not possible to exclude the following flood paths: Skjálfandafljót, Kaldakvísl, Skaftá and Grímsvötn.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office:
The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’ and the code for Askja at ‘yellow’.
Modelling of continuous GPS measurements north of Vatnajökull show significant horizontal deformation during Aug. 31 to end of day Sept. 2, indicating a volume increase in the dike intrusion. Radar images show a graben formed south of the eruption and cracks extend onto the edge of Dyngjujökull (see images below). This demonstrates large horizontal and vertical displacements over the dike. As long as there is a net influx of magma to the dike, the eruptive fissure could extend further south, causing increased hazard in the area.
Blue arrows (with 95% confidence ellipses) are measured displacements, red arrows show the model prediction. Green line is the surface projection of the dike model. Earthquakes recorded by the IMO during this time are shown with red dots, green stars indicate M>4 events.
 |
 |
Riverine discharge and conductivity in rivers draining potential eruptions sites within the Vatnajökull glacier. Background data and observations (pdf)
Eydís Salome Eiríksdóttir, Iwona Monika Galeczka, Rebecca Anna Neely and Sigurdur Reynir Gíslason
Volcanic gas hazard (pdf file)
Magma contains dissolved gases that are released into the atmosphere during eruptions. Gases are also released from magma that either remains below ground (for example, as an intrusion) or is rising towards the surface. In such cases, gases may escape continuously into the atmosphere from the soil, volcanic vents, fumaroles, and hydrothermal systems.
The major volcanic gases emitted from basaltic magma are H2O, CO2, SO2, H2, CO, H2S, HCl and HF. The most abundant gas is water vapor (H2O), followed by carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2).
03.09.2014, 12:20 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
New map of the advance of lava - 2. September 2014, 14:00
The field group of the IES measured the northern and eastern edge of the lava flow at 14:00 yesterday. The lava was then about 6 km long and had advanced about 2 km in 24 hours.
The discharge of magma from the fisssure is estimated to have been 100-150 m3/s in the 24 hours before 14:00, about one third of the rate on the first day.
Photomicrograph of silicate melt inclusions in plagioclase crystals picked from sample 11 erupted on 31st of August.
02.09.2014, 12:20 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection.
A noticeable decrease in seismicity has occurred during the last 24 hours. The level of activity is approximately half of that during recent days. Since midnight today, around 300 earthquakes have occurred. At the same time yesterday, 01 September, around 500 earthquakes had been detected.
The rate of deformation at GPS sites closest to the dyke intrusion has decreased. Together with an overnight decrease in seismicity, this implies that magma inflow appears to match magma outflow at the eruption site.
The eruption has not created any ash-fall.
A white plume of steam and gas rises from the eruption on Holuhraun, reaching an elevation of about 4.5 km above sea level. Downwind, a volcanic cloud extends from the eruption site. Yesterday afternoon, a white cloud from the eruption extended 60 km to the north-north-east.
In comparison to yesterday, more sulphur dioxide has been measured in the eruption cloud.
Sandstorms on the floodplain around the eruption site have contributed fine-grained particles to the eruption cloud. This was seen as a light-brown haze earlier today near to Egilsstaðir.
The eruptive fissure is about 1.5 km in length, positioned about 4.5 km from the ice margin of Dyngjujökull.
At 14:00 UTC yesterday, the lava flow was 4.2 km2 in area. At 08:00 UTC the edge had extended 1.5 km to the east-south-east.
The eruption continues, although there appears to have been a slight decrease in activity compared to yesterday.
It remains unclear how the situation will develop. Four scenarios are still considered most likely:
- The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
- The dike could reach the Earth’s surface causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Lava flow and (or) explosive activity cannot be excluded.
- The intrusion reaches the surface and another eruption occurs where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
- An eruption in Bárðarbunga. The eruption could cause an outburst flood and possibly an explosive, ash-producing activity. In the event of a subglacial eruption, it is most likely that flooding would affect Jökulsá á Fjöllum. However it is not possible to exclude the following flood paths: Skjálfandafljót, Kaldakvísl, Skaftá and Grímsvötn.
- Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office:
The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’ and the code for Askja at ‘yellow’.
Observations of tephra deposits from 29-08-2014 by the lava producing event at Holuhraun, North Iceland
Two very small tephra fall sectors are present on the west side of the fissure.
The first sector is comprised of fine-grained grey ash with origin at the southern part of the active fissure. This tephra fall rests on the surface of two fresh and westward trending lava flows surrounding the venting area on the southern end of the fissure. The deposit was distributed from about 150 m along the fissure and thickness of the fall deposit at the vents is 2 cm. 10 m to the west of the vents the thickness drops to 0.5 cm. Further away from the vents the deposit was eroded and remobilized. Thickness estimated to be less than mm in the area >20 m away from craters. Beneath the grey ash is a 0.3-0.4 cm thick lithic layer, comprised of angular and rounded lithics of approximate 0.1-0.2 cm in diameter, this lithic layer was only observed within 10m of the vent.
The second tephra sector is a red-brown ash fall observed close to the largest vent on the new fissure. The deposit reached up to 10 m from its vents and consists of red-oxidized and black juvenile fragments along with grains of plagioclase. The mean grain size of this deposit ranges from 0.2 cm at vent to 0.1 cm 10 m from vent. Water-escape features and dampness of the deposit indicates moist emplacement. Thickness at vent is 0.4-0.6 cm and 10 m west of the vent it has dropped to 0.2 cm.
Jónas Gudnason, Kate Gallegher, and Johanne Schmith.
New COSMO-SkyMED decending interferogram spanning the period 13 - 29 August 2014
COSMO-SkyMED descending wrapped interferogram spanning the period 13 - 29 August 2014. Each interferometric fringe corresponds to 15 millimeters of relative change in range from ground to satellite. The highest fringe rate is observed closest to the subsurface dike causing the deformation. Decorrelation in the interferogram is caused by large amount of deformation at the surface, lava flows formed in an eruption between the acquisition of the images used, and surface change due to unstable sand.
1. September 2014
The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’ and the code for Askja at ‘yellow’.
1st September 2014 06:50 - from geoscientist on duty in the Icelandic Met Office
The activity around Bárðarbunga from midnight 1. September until 06:50:
Volcanic activity in Holuhraun:
The fissure eruption is continuing at a stable level. No explosive activity is observed, the eruption remains an effusive lava eruption. Visual observation by webcam and low level volcanic tremor on seismometers do not show any obvious changes since evening. More detailled information will soon follow from scientists in the field.
Seismic activity:
Around 250 earthquakes have been automatically detected until now. Most of them are located in the northern part of the magma intrusion, between the eruption site and south to about 10 km into Dynjujökull. Strongest events were up to around magnitude 2. The rate of events has decreased as a result of pressure release due to the eruption, but there is still ongoing continuous seismicity.
Several events have occurred around the Bárðarbunga caldera rim, strongest events were M4.2 at 03:09 on the southern rim and M4.5 at 04:59 on the northern rim. See maps.
In the broader Askja region, most events were located at Herðubreiðartögl, the strongest event there was M2.9 at 02:56. This area is a quite common place for seismic activity, the activity now is not necessarily caused by increased stress due to the intrusion (the tip of the intrusion is about 25 km SW of this cluster). Askja volcano itself was seismically quiet last night.
Photo: Sveinbjörn Steinþórsson - 31. August 2014 at 22:01
31. August 2014
Daily status report 31. August 2014 - compiled by IMO (Icelandic Met Office) and IES (Institute of Earth Scienses) (pdf)
Bárðarbunga: 31.08.2014, 12:00 UTC.
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection.
Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
· A lava eruption started in Holuhraun shortly after 04 AM, on the same volcanic fissure, which erupted earlier this week. The fissure is estimated to be 1,5 km long. It was detected on Míla´s web-camera at 05:51 AM. Fewer earthquakes seem to follow the event than in the previous eruption, but more lava is being extruded.
· At 07 AM the lava flow was around 1 km wide and 3 km long towards northeast. The thickness was estimated a few meters, the flow about 1000 m3 pr second.
· Approximately 500 earthquakes were detected in the area and smaller than before. The strongest earthquake, M3.8 was in the Bárðarbunga caldera. Poor weather conditions prevail in the area, which makes detection of smaller earthquakes difficult.
· GPS measurements show continued movements north of Dyngjujökull.
· Gas emissions rise to a few hundred meters above the fissure.
· Weather conditions make it difficult to follow the progression of the eruption, but scientists are in the area, using every opportunity to acquire information on gas and lava outflow.
· Weather conditions do not allow overflight at this time. The opportunity to fly over the area will be assessed later today.
From the Icelandic Met Office:
The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga is at ‘red’ and the code for Askja at ‘yellow’.
31st August 2014 08:40 - Eruption in Holuhraun observed 05:15
Observation from scientists in the field (05:15): It appears that the eruptive fissure is longer than in the last eruption. It is extending north and south on the same fissure. The eruption is a very calm lava eruption and can hardly be seen on seismometers (almost no gosórói). Visual observation confirm it is calm, but continuous.
Observation from scientists in the field (07:15): It appears that the eruptive fissure is longer than in the last eruption. It is extending north and south on the same fissure. The eruption is a very calm lava eruption and can hardly be seen on seismometers (almost no gosórói). Visual observation confirm it is calm, but continuous.
IMO has chnged the aviation colour code of Bárðarbunga to "red".
photo: Ármann Höskuldsson
An upgraded plot of Bárðarbunga seismicity and dike propagation based on revised earthquake locations from IMO, circle size represents earthquake magnitude. The three eruptions are marked by orange colored bars. Note how rapid dike propagation northwards coincides with the SE Bárðarbunga flank eruption whereas a slight decrease in dike propagation is associated with the first Holuhraun eruption.
Bryndís Brandsdóttir
Bárðarbunga: 30.08.2014, 12:00 UTC.
Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection.
Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
· Earthquake activity continues on a 15-km-long region of the dyke intrusion, extending both into the Dyngjujökull glacier and the region north of the ice margin. Earthquakes have not migrated northwards during the last two days. Seismicity remains high and, since midnight, about 700 earthquakes have been detected in the region.
· The largest earthquakes since midnight include: (i) a magnitude 4.5 event on the northern side of the Bárðarbunga caldera at 02:35 UTC; (ii) a magnitude 4.2 earthquake in the same region at 06:18 UTC; and (iii) a magnitude 5.4 earthquake on the south-eastern edge of the Bárðarbunga caldera at 07:03 UTC. During the last two weeks, several earthquakes of similar size have occurred on the edge of the Bárðarbunga caldera. These earthquakes are interpreted as signs of stress changes in the region of the caldera.
· Over 20 micro-earthquakes have been detected in the Askja region. It is thought that these earthquakes have occurred due to stress changes north of the dyke intrusion.
· GPS measurements show continued horizontal movements north of Vatnajökull due to formation of the dyke intrusion on the northern edge of the ice-cap.
· No unusual changes in the discharge or electrical conductivity of Jökulsá á Fjöllum have been detected. The same applies to other rivers draining from north-western Vatnajökull.
· A sample of newly erupted lava was taken from Holuhraun yesterday; analysis is ongoing.
· There are no indications that the intensity of the activity declining.
· At this moment it is unclear how the situation will develop. However, four scenarios are considered most likely:
o The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
o The dike could reach the Earth’s surface north of Dyngjujökull causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Such an eruption could include lava flow and (or) explosive activity.
o The intrusion reaches the surface and an eruption occurs again where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
o An eruption in Bárðarbunga. The eruption could cause an outburst flood and possibly an explosive, ash-producing activity. In the event of a subglacial eruption, it is most likely that flooding would affect Jökulsá á Fjöllum. However it is not possible to exclude the following flood paths: Skjálfandafljót, Kaldakvísl, Skaftá and Grímsvötn.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.
From the Icelandic Met Office:
The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga remains at ‘orange’ and the code for Askja at ‘yellow’.
- The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.
- The dike could reach the Earth’s surface north of Dyngjujökull causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Such an eruption could include lava flow and (or) explosive activity.
- The intrusion reaches the surface and an eruption occurs again where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
An overview of Bárðarbunga seismicity and dike propagation, August 16th-28th - Bryndís Brandsdóttir
Revised earthquake locations from IMO, circle size represents earthquake magnitude. Dike propagation commences following termination of Kistufell activity. Advances in dike probation (marked by vertical lines) are related to large deflation events in Bárðarbunga.
29. August 2014 at 7:10 UTC
An eruption has started in Holuhraun north of Dyngjujökull at 00:02 this morning. An approximately 1 km long fissure (first estimate of scientists in the field) has opened, the eruption is purely effusive and no signs of explosive activity or ash emission has been detected so far. Based on volcanic tremor data, the eruption was strongest between 00:20 and around 02:00, peaking between 00:400 and 01:00. It has been decreasing until about 02:30 and is stabily active since.
Seismic activity has decreased as a result of the pressure release, however a significant amount of earthquakes is still detected in the magma dike, between the eruption site and south to about 5 km into Dyngjujökull. Strongest events last night were 3.8 in the caldera of Bárðarbunga at 04:37, as well as 2.9 at 05:39 and 3.5 at 06:38 in the dike. These earthquake are very closely monitored, but no significant change volcanic activity following these has been observed so far.
New COSMO-SkyMED ascending and decending interferograms
COSMO-SkyMED ascending interferogram spanning the period 11th August 2014 - 27th August 2014. Each fringe represents ~1.5 cm of displacement in the satellite's line-of-sight.
COSMO-SkyMED descending interferogram spanning the period 10th August 2014 - 26th August 2014. Each fringe represents ~1.5 cm of displacement in the satellite's line-of-sight.
Processing carried out using CSK Products, © ASI (Italian Space Agency) - 2014, delivered under an ASI license to use. COSMO-SkyMed images have been provided in the framework of the Geohazard Supersite Initiative.
Model of surface deformation, incorporating both GPS and satellite data, spanning the period 10th August 2014 - 27th August 2014. The vertical plane represents the location of the dike at depth (red colours show maximum opening). The model indicates that the eruption (red star) is coming from the patch with maximum opening (5m), right at the surface (dark red patch). Black dots show earthquakes during the same time period (since the start of unrest on the 16th August 2014) located by the Icelandic Met Office. Model processed by A.J.H.
Interferogram processing carried out using CSK Products, © ASI (Italian Space Agency) - 2014, delivered under an ASI license to use. COSMO-SkyMed images have been provided in the framework of the Geohazard Supersite Initiative.
IMO has visual confirmation via scientists in the field and via webcam that a A fissure eruption (hraungos / sprungugos) has started north of Dyngjujökull (Holuhraun). Based on webcams and seismic data the eruption started at 00:02 (29/8/14).
No volcanic ash has been detected with the radar system at the moment. The wind field condition in the area are wind blowing toward NW at 12 m/s at 5 km altitude. Seismic eruption tremor is low indicating effusive eruption without significant explosive activity.
Satellite infrared images (Seviri 3,9 micron) confirm thermal anomaly at 00:38.
The color code at Bárðarbunga has been changed to red.
Bárðarbunga: 28.08.2014, 12:00 UTC
Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection
Scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences, together with representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland, met today to discuss the on-going unrest at the Bárðarbunga volcano.
This morning, there was a flight over the Bárðarbunga area and the surface of the glacier was surveyed. No changes to the ice crevasses southeast of Bárðarbunga, that were seen yesterday evening, were observed. These crevasses were likely formed due to melting at the ice bottom.
The depressions have been located southeast of the Bárðarbunga caldera, in all likelihood within the water divide of the river Jökulsá á Fjöllum. There are three circular crevasse formations, about 5 km in total length. The ice thickness in the area is 400-600 m.
The water level in Grímsvötn Lake has been surveyed and has likely risen by about 5-10 m in the last days, which corresponds to an addition of 10-30 million m3 of water in the lake. A slight increase in conductivity in Köldukvísl River was measured this morning, but the cause is yet unknown. No change has been measured in the Hágöngulón lagoon, Jökulsá River and Skjálfandi River. It is assumed, that the water from the cauldron has flowed into the Grímsvötn Lake or the river Jökulsá á Fjöllum.
The seismic activity is similar to that of the last days. Around midnight, three earthquakes of magnitude around 4 were recorded and one of magnitude 5 at 08:13 this morning, all located within the Bárðarbunga caldera.
Shortly before 08:00 this morning, there was a slight increase in seismic activity in Askja volcano. Changes in the stress field due to expansion caused by the dyke have an effect on the Askja area.
Since yesterday, the length of the dyke under Dyngjujökull has increased by 1-1.5 km to the north, which is considerably less than in the last days. The dyke has now reached the fissure system of the Askja volcano and GPS measurements indicate that the area there is greatly affected.
The conclusions from the meeting of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection will continue to be published at around noon, after the meeting, if necessary.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code remains at the ‘orange’ level for Bárðarbunga. The Aviation Colour code is raised to 'yellow' level for Askja.
New page showing cumulative displacements at cGPS stations near Bárðarbunga and earthquakes
Scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences, together with representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland, met today to discuss the on-going unrest at the Bárðarbunga volcano.
These are the conclusions of the meeting:
• Intense seismi...city continues. Over 700 earthquakes have been recorded since midnight. Earthquakes are occurring mostly beyond the edge of the Dyngjujökull glacier and the intrusion itself has migrated about 1 km northwards since yesterday.
• At 00:16 UTC today, a magnitude 5.3 earthquake occurred in the caldera of Bárðarbunga. At 02:50 UTC, another similar-sized earthquake (magnitude 5.2) took place in the same region.
• At 01:52 UTC, a magnitude 4.5 earthquake was detected on the eastern side of the Askja volcano. This was followed by a few micro-earthquakes in the same area.
• The dyke intrusion beneath Dyngjujökull is thought to be about 40 km in length.
• Modelling of GPS data indicates that about 20 million cubic metres of magma have been added to the volume of the intrusion in the last 24 hours.
• Modelling results suggest that the dyke intrusion is causing stress changes over a large area, including the region to the north of the dyke’s extent; this could account for the increased seismicity at Askja volcano.
• There are no indications that the intensity of the activity declining.
• From today, the afternoon status report will no longer be produced. However, if the situation escalates (i.e. imminent signs of an eruption), daily status reports will be reintroduced. The results of the scientific advisory board (this factsheet) will continue to be distributed daily at around midday.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code remains at the ‘orange’ level for Bárðarbunga.
26. August 2014 kl. 11:50 - Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences, and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland, attend the meetings of the Advisory Board
The following points were the conclusion at a meeting of the Advisory Board today:
- Intense seismicity continues. Over 500 events have been recorded since midnight.
- Seismicity continues to migrate northward. Seismicity is now concentrated on the 10 km long tip of the dike extending 5 km beyond the edge of the Dyngjujökull glacier.
- At 01:26 this morning an earthquake of magnitude 5,7 was observed beneath the Bárðarbunga caldera.
- The dyke beneath Dyngjujökull is now thought to be close to 40 km long. Modelling of GPS data indicates that about 50 million cubic meters of magma have added to the volume in the last 24 hours.
- There are no indications that the intensity of the activity declining. The following three scenarios are still considered most likely:
- The migration of magma could stop, accompanied by a gradual reduction in seismic activity.
- The dike could reach the surface of the crust, starting an eruption. In this scenario, it is most likely that the eruption would be near the northern tip of the dyke. This would most likely produce an effusive lava eruption with limited explosive, ash-producing activity.
- An alternate scenario would be the dyke reaching the surface where a significant part, or all, of the fissure is beneath the glacier. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
- Other scenarios cannot be excluded. For example, an eruption inside the Bárðarbunga caldera is possible but presently considered to be less likely.
From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Color Code remains at the ‘orange’ level.
25.08.2014 11:00 - Scientists from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences, and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attend the meetings of the Advisory Board
The following was presented at a meeting of the Advisory Board at 10 am today:
- Intense seismicity continues. Over 700 events have been recorded since midnight.
- Seismicity continues to migrate northward. Seismicity is now concentrated on the 10 km long tip of the dike extending 5 km beyond the edge of the Dyngjujökull glacier.
- At 20:39 last night an earthquake of magnitude ~5 was observed beneath the Bárðarbunga caldera. Since then earthquakes in the caldera have been smaller.
- The dike beneath Dyngjujökull is now thought to be close to 35 km long. Modelling of GPS data indicates that it contains about 300 million cubic meters of magma.
- Additional stations for continuous GPS monitoring will be installed north of Vonarskarð and on Urðarháls within a few days.
- There are no indications that the intensity of the activity declining.
- Currently, three scenarios are considered most likely:
- The migration of magma could stop, attended by a gradual reduction in seismic activity.
- The dike could reach the surface of the crust, starting an eruption. In this scenario, it is most likely that the eruption would be near the northern tip of the dike. This would most likely produce an effusive lava eruption with limited explosive, ash-producing activity.
- An alternate scenario would be the dike reaching the surface where a significant part, or all, of the fissure is beneath the glacier. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.
- Other scenarios cannot be excluded. For example, an eruption inside the Bárdarbunga caldera is possible but presently considered to be less likely.
Bárðarbunga – Dyngjujökull – aircraft observations on 23 August
Detailed observations from TF-SIF, the Coast Guard Dash 9 were performed in the afternoon of the 23rd of August. The observations revealed that no signs of an ongoing eruption could be detected and it is concluded that a subglacial eruption did not happen. Increased low frequency tremor observed on that day must therefore have a different explanation.
The SAR-radar images obtained by the aircraft in the afternoon of 23 August show that no changes have occurred, neither subsidence, or unusal discharge of rivers.
Experience from subglacial eruptions in the past suggests the following:
· Large scale melting of ice occurs if an eruption takes place beneath a glacier. Even very small eruptions (like the eruption at Fimmvorðuháls that preceded the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010) if they had taken place under ice, would melt of the order of 100 cubic meters per second of ice and cause notable increase in discharge in glacial rivers.
· In most cases meltwater will flow away from the eruption site towards the edge of the glacier. If an eruption occurs in late summer the drainage system at the bottom of the glacier is well developed. This means that water will drain fast to the edge of the glacier. For example, if an eruption site is located under ice, 5-10 km from the edge of the glacier it is expected that meltwater will reach the edge in about an hour.
· The time it takes an eruption to melt its way to the surface is strongly dependent on the ice thickness. As an example, the moderate sized eruption of Grímsvötn in 2004, melted through 150 m of ice in about one hour while the more powerful Gjálp eruption in 1996 took 31 hours to melt through 600 m of ice.
· The above implies that the meltwater from an eruption beginning under e.g. 500 m of ice in Dyngjujökull would emerge from the glacier several hours before the eruption melts through the glacier sparking off an explosive eruption because of magma-water interaction.
Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson
23.08.2014, 20:30 UTC – Bárðarbunga
Information from Icelandic Met Office (IMO)
- At 11:20 UTC today, seismic tremor measurements gave a strong indication that an eruption beneath Dyngjujökull was occurring. Tremor levels decreased during the afternoon, although intense earthquake activity continues.
- At 14:00 UTC, an over-flight was made to Bárðarbunga by the Icelandic Coastguard with scientists from the Icelandic Meteorological Office and the University of Iceland, in addition to a representative from the National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police.
- The over-flight covered the north-western region of the Vatnajökull ice-cap in clear conditions. Both visual observations and radar measurements confirmed no significant changes on the surface of Vatnajökull. Likewise, there were no signs of floodwater draining from the ice margin.
- During three hours of aerial surveillance, there were no obvious signs of volcanic activity.
- In light of the intense, ongoing earthquake activity and crustal deformation at Bárðarbunga, the Icelandic Meteorological Office has decided that the aviation colour-code should remain ‘red’, signifying that an eruption is either imminent or in progress. The situation will be reassessed tomorrow morning.
23rd August 2014 14:10 - a small eruption under Dyngjujökull?
Information from Icelandic Met Office (IMO)
- The Icelandic Coast Guard airplane TF-SIF is flying over the area with representatives from the Civil Protection and experts from the Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences. Data from the equipment on board is expected later today.
- Data from radars and web-cameras is being received, showing no signs of changes at the surface.
- The estimate is that 150-400 meters of ice is above the area.
- The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.
- Some minutes ago (14:04), an earthquake occurred, estimated 4.5 in magnitude.
GPS time series around Bárðabunga, including recently installed continuous GPS station GSIG in Kverkfjöll
GPS time series for the last 3 months
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/DYNC_3mrap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/HAFS_3mrap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/GFUM_3mrap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/VONC_3mrap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/GSIG_3mrap.png
1 year GPS time series
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/DYNC_rap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/HAFS_rap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/GFUM_rap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/VONC_rap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/GSIG_rap.png
Extended time series
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/DYNC_08.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/HAFS_08.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/GFUM_08.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/VONC_08.png
Since the start of the earthquake swarm, precise continuous GPS stations located in the vicinity of the Bárðarbunga central volcano have shown movements which indicate that magma is propagating in the crust. During the period between 8 am on the 15th of August and 4 pm on the 18th of August a GPS station on Dyngjuháls moved 5,4 cm towards the northwest and a GPS station near Grímsvötn moved 1,8 cm towards the south.
The map shows locations of earthquakes detected by the SIL network of the Icelandic Meteorological Office. Movements on continuous GPS stations are shown as blue arrows, the continuous stations are run in cooperation between the Institute of Earth Sciences at the University of Iceland and by the Icelandic Meteorological Office. Fractures and eruptive fissures in the area are denoted by yellow and red lines respectively.
The orange arrows show a model on how the GPS stations could be moving if a dike was propagating (see thick red line on map), and magma was draining away from the Bárðarbunga magma chamber („Mogi center“). It has to be mentioned, however, that this model is only one of several models that can explain the movements seen on the GPS stations.
-------
Possible model of the dike intrusion:
Length of dike: 20 km
Height of dike: 2,1 km
Opening of dike: 1,6 m
Depth to the dike: 3 km
Volume of dike: 80-90 million cubic meters
Strike = 47,51, dip 90 (predefined)
Depth to Mogi source: 1 km
Volume change of Mogi source:
-10 til -30 million cubic meters
-------
References:
GPS data – Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland and the Icelandic Meteorological Office
Model calculations: Elías Rafn Heimisson, Freysteinn Sigmundsson
Earthquakes: Icelandic Meteorological Office (part of the earthquakes have not been reviewed).
Fractures near Tungnafellsjökull: Þórhildur Björnsdóttir and
Páll Einarsson (Jökull, 2013).
Fractures and eruptive fissures in the Northern Volcanic Zone: Ásta Rut Hjartardóttir
and Páll Einarsson (2012), Ásta Rut Hjartardóttir (2013).
Background: IS50 database of the National Land Survey of Iceland.
3m
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/DYNC_3mrap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/HAFS_3mrap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/GFUM_3mrap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/VONC_3mrap.png
1yr
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/DYNC_rap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/HAFS_rap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/GFUM_rap.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/VONC_rap.png
long
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/DYNC_08.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/HAFS_08.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/GFUM_08.png
http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/VONC_08.png
Melissa Pfeffer posted this message on Basecamp:
Bárðarbunga aviation color code changed to orange
The intense seismic activity that started on 16 of August at Bárðarbunga persists. Very strong indications of ongoing magma movement, in connection with dyke intrusion, is corroborated by GPS measurements. There are currently two swarms: one to the E of Bárðarbunga caldera and one at the edge of Dyngjajökull just E of Kistufell. At 2.37 am on the 18th a strong earthquake (M4) was located in the Kistufell swarm. This is the strongest earthquake measured in the region since 1996. As evidence of magma movement shallower than 10 km implies increased potential of a volcanic eruption, we are moving the Bárðarbunga aviation color code to orange (after a reevaluation of the events in the last days).
Presently there are no signs of eruption, but we cannot exclude that the current activity will result in an explosive subglacial eruption, leading to an outburst flood (jökulhlaup) and ash emission. The situation is monitored closely.
The update map is available at:
http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/volcanic-eruptions/
An intense seismic swarm is currently taking place under the eastern part of Bárðarbunga. Between 03:04 and 13:00 on August 16th a total of 189 earthquakes occurred (max. M2.9). The seismic swarm continues and continuous GPS stations have detected deformation that confirm magma movements associated with intrusive activity. No indications of surface magma extrusion beneath the ice cap have been observed. If the activity progresses towards an eruption, a scenario could involve a subglacial, or partly subglacial eruption, at the northwestern part or edge of Vatnajökull, with a jökulhlaup in the Jökulsá á Fjöllum river towards the north.
This is the largest seismic swarm seen in Bárðarbunga since the end of September 1996, in the days leading to the Gjálp eruption. The area is covered by Vatnajökull and the ice thickness varies from 100-200 at the caldera rims of Bárðarbunga to over 800 m within the Bárðarbunga caldera. IMO, IES and Civil Protection are monitoring the situation – the seismic activity can be observed at www.vedur.is.
A direct link to the Vatnajökull seismic map is: http://www.vedur.is/skjalftar-og-eldgos/jardskjalftar/vatnajokull/#view=map
Bárðarbunga Volcanic System, a pre-publication extract from the Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes, to be made publically available in the coming months.
Hazard due to eruptions, including subglacial ones:
M. T. Gudmundsson, G. Larsen, Á. Höskuldsson and Á. G. Gylfason, 2008. Volcanic hazards in Iceland, Jökull (58), 251-268.
On the volcano-ice interaction in the Gjálp eruption:
https://notendur.hi.is//~mtg/pdf/1997Nature_MTG_FS_HB.pdf
https://notendur.hi.is//~mtg/pdf/2003BullVolc66_MTGetal_Gjalp.pdf
On eruptions in glaciers in general:
https://notendur.hi.is//~mtg/pdf/2005SubglacVolcAct_MTG-DQS.pdf
https://notendur.hi.is//~mtg/pdf/2003GeopMono140_MTG_magma-ice-water.pdf
More related publications:
Hartley, M. E., and T. Thordarson (2013), The 1874–1876 volcano-tectonic episode at Askja, North Iceland: Lateral flow revisited, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 14, 2286–2309, doi:10.1002/ggge.20151
M.E. Hartley, T. Thordarson, J.G. Fitton and EIMF (2013), Oxygen isotopes in melt inclusions and glasses from the Askja volcanic system, North Iceland, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 123, 55–73. doi: 10.1016/j.gca.2013.09.008
Hartley, M. E., and T. Thordarson (2012), Formation of Öskjuvatn caldera at Askja, North Iceland: Mechanism of caldera collapse and implications for the lateral flow hypothesis, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 227-228, 85-101. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.02.009
Óladóttir, B.A., Larsen G. & Sigmarsson, O. Holocene volcanic activity at Grímsvötn, Bárdarbunga and Kverkfjöll subglacial centres beneath Vatnajökull, Iceland. Bulletin of Volcanology, 73, 1187-1208. doi: 10.1007/s00445-011-0461-4
Björnsdóttir, Þ. & Einarsson, P., 2013. Evidence of recent fault movements in the Tungnafellsjökull fissure swarm in the Central Volcanic Zone, Iceland. Jökull (63), 17-32.
Björnsson, H. & Einarsson, P., 1990. Volcanoes beneath Vatnajökull, Iceland: Evidence from radio echo-sounding, earthquakes and jökulhlaups. Jökull (40), 147-168.
Einarsson, P., 1991. Earthquakes and present-day tectonism in Iceland. Tectonophysics, 189, 261-279.
Thordarson, T., and G. Larsen, 2007. Volcanism in Iceland in historical time: Volcano types, eruption styles and eruptive history. Journal of Geodynamics, 43, p. 118-152.
Pagli, C., and F. Sigmundsson, 2008. Will present day glacier retreat increase volcanic activity? Stress induced by recent glacier retreat and its effect on magmatism at the Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L09304, doi:10.1029/2008GL033510.
Höskuldsson, Á. 2000. Late Pleistocene subglacial caldera formation at Cerro las Cumbres. eastern Mexico, Jökull (50), 49-64.
Armann Höskuldsson, Robert S. J. Sparks, Michael R. Carroll, 2006. Constraints on the dynamics of subglacial basalt eruptions from geological and geochemical observations at Kverkfjöll, NE-Iceland, Bulletin of Volcanology, (68) 7-8, 689-701. DOI 10.1007/s00445-005-0043-4
Armann Höskuldsson, Michael R. Carroll, Robert S. J. Sparks. QUATERNARY ICE SHEET THICKNESS, JÖKULHLAUPS AND RAPID DEPRESSURIZATION OF PILLOW BASALTS, Mars Polar Science 2000.
Armann Höskuldsson, Robert S. J. Sparks, 1997. Thermodynamics and fluid dynamics of effusive subglacial eruptions, Bulletin of Volcanology (59), 219-230.