Bárðarbunga - Holuhraun | Institute of Earth Sciences

This page contains scientific data and results from the staff of the Institute of Earth Sciences and various collaborators. The data is posted timely to give maximum information on evaluation of an evolving natural catastrophe. Please respect copyright and authorship of the data.

New material is added to the top of the page. The original information is at the end of the article, therefore this page gives an overview of events. Below is a calendar with a short-cut to each day within this long text:

March 2015: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16

February 2015: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-19-20-21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28
January 2015: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-19-20-21-22-23-24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31

2014

For detailed information on seismicity go to the IMO (Icelandic Met Office) webpage
See also earthquake maps on IMO's web
Web-cameras from M&T ehf are watching the area in various directions.
Web-camera from Míla is watching the eruption in Holuhraun. Please observe that Míla's background photo has nothing to do with the current events.

Further readings

16. March 2015

Reduction of the access controlled area north of Vatnajökull - 16. March 2015

The Police District Commissioners in North Eastern, Eastern, Southern Iceland, and the National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police have decided to change the restricted area in Holuhraun with reference to the Civil Protection law no. 82/2008 article 23.

The restricted area extends 20 m outside the edges of the new lava field, to the edge of Dyngjujökull glacier on the south side, the river Jökulsá á Fjöllum to the east and to the westernmost branches of Jökulsá á Fjöllum in the west. The restricted area is shown on the enclosed map of the area.

This decision is based on a risk assessment from the Icelandic Meteorological Office covering risk factors in the area. The Icelandic Meteorological Office has also proposed countermeasures to increase public safety close to the restricted area.

The Police, in cooperation with Vatnajökull National Park, will provide a presence in the area to secure public safety, in close collaboration with the Icelandic Meteorological Office. These institutions will try to install further monitoring equipment to add to the existing monitoring system in the area to increase monitoring so that warnings may be issued if necessary.

Vatnajökull National Park will issue locations of viewing areas. Information on evacuation routes will be issued by officers on site.

Civil Protection in Iceland (English homepage)

12. March 2015

12.03.2015, 09:30 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, The Directorate of Health and The Environmental Agency of Iceland.

Conclusion of the meeting:

The meeting discussed the hazards that may still be relevant following the events in Bárðarbunga and Holuhraun.
Number of equipment’s must be installed in the area and the monitoring of the Icelandic Met Office must be secured before the area is opened for the public.
Countermeasures to reduce risk in the area will be taken and further opening of the area will then be decided.

Status:

Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga continues to diminish. Since last Tuesday about 80 earthquakes were detected in the caldera. The strongest one was M2.5. Continuous seismic activity was detected in the dyke, with about 200 earthquakes being detected, all smaller than M2.0. Few deep earthquakes were detected southeast of Bárðarbunga, where the dyke turned to northeast.
Earthquakes were detected daily around Herðubreið and Herðubreiðartögl. Yesterday a series of about 20 earthquakes was detected north of Herðubreiðartögl. Very few earthquakes are now being detected by Tungnafellsjökul.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga is yellow.

The Scientific Advisory Board will convene when needed.

3. March 2015

03.03.2015, 10:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

Scientists are now analysing data and examining the eruption site to reassess the hazard assessment. It was decided to use this week for that assignment. The Scientific Advisory Board will meet again next Tuesday, 10^th of March, based on that meeting it will be decided if the hazard assessment and the restricted area will be changed.

Status:

The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun came to an end on Friday 27^th of February.
Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga continues to diminish. Only one earthquake stronger than M2,0 was measured since last Saturday. It was M2.3 yesterday at 04:08. In total around 60 earthquakes were detected around the caldera since Saturday.
Around 120 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period. The strongest one was measured M1.6 on Sunday at 02:10. A slightly more activity is now measured in the dyke, which is most likely due to decreased pressure.
Three earthquakes were detected around Tungnafellsjökul glacier, about 30 earthquakes around Herðubreið and 2 in Grímsfjall. All of these earthquakes were weaker than M2.0.
Insubstantial tectonic movements are now detected in the area.

Air quality:

Gas contamination is still being detected over and around the lava field. Gas contamination is still expected in the vicinity of the eruption site. Gas emission will be monitored closely and forecasts issued if needed.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga is now yellow.

The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 10^thof March 2015.

1. March 2015

LANDSAT 8 image from NASA & USGS, processed at the Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland.

28. February 2015

28.02.2015, 10:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun, which began on August 31^st 2014, has come to an end.

The area continues to be closely monitored.
Gas contamination is still detected around the eruption site.
No changes have been made to the restricted area north of Vatnajökull.
The Civil Protection still operates in alert phase.
Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga has been downgraded from orange to yellow.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bárðarbunga has been downgraded from orange to yellow. The Aviation Colour Code system for Icelandic Volcanic Systems is explained here on the Icelandic Met Office web site.

The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 3^rd of March 2015.

27. February 2015

27.02.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

For the last few days there has been very poor visibility of the eruption in Holuhraun due to bad weather. Satellite images do confirm that the eruption is still on going.

Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga continues to diminish. The strongest earthquake since Tuesday was measured M2.5 yesterday, 26^th of February, at 01:59. Other earthquakes were all smaller then magnitudes M2.0. In total around 50 earthquakes were detected around the caldera since last Tuesday. No earthquake stronger than magnitude M3.0 has been detected since February 21^st and no earthquake over M5.0 since January 8^th.
Around 60 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period. The strongest ones were measured M1.4 and M1.3. It is worth to mention that bad weather does affect the number of small earthquakes detected.
The rate of the subsidence in Bárðarbunga caldera last week was about 5 cm per day in light of the ice subsidence into the caldera.
GPS measurements near Vatnajökull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bárðarbunga, indicating a flow of magma from under the volcano.
Five earthquakes were detected around Tungnafellsjökul glacier, the strongest was magnitude M1.7. About 25 earthquakes were detected around Askja and Herðubreið since last Tuesday. The strongest, magnitude M2.3 was detected in Askja yesterday at 05:42.
Automatic gas detector measured S02 concentration on 500 µgr/m³ in Blönduós yesterday.

Air quality:

Today (Friday) there are chances of gas pollution from the Holuhraun eruption in the areas southeast of the volcano early on in the day, but also west and southwest of it in the afternoon. Tomorrow (Saturday) the pollution (if any) will be carried towards southwest and south.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The volcanic eruption has now been going on for almost half a year. The lava flow has decreased substantially in Holuhraun and the rate of the subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera has also decreased substantially. Three scenarios are considered most likely:

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 3^rd of March 2015.

24. February 2015

24.02.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

For the last few days there has been very poor visibility of the eruption in Holuhraun due to bad weather.

Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga continues to diminish although it can still be considered strong. The strongest earthquake since Friday was measured M3.7 on Saturday, 21^st of February, at 15:20. Two other earthquakes stronger then magnitudes M3.0 were detected over the period. In total around 60 earthquakes were detected around the caldera since last Friday. Two deep earthquakes were detected 18 km southeast of Bárðarbunga. The former on 20^th of February at 02:50 on 19 km depth, and the later on 21^st of February at 21:55 on 16 km depth. No earthquake over M5.0 has been detected in Bárðarbunga since 8. January.
Around 90 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period. The strongest ones were measured M1.6. It is worth to mention that bad weather does affect the number of small earthquakes detected.
The rate of the subsidence in Bárðarbunga caldera is now less than 2 cm a day. Ice is subsiding into the caldera does effecting that the data coming from the GPS station in the caldera.
GPS measurements near Vatnajökull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bárðarbunga, indicating a flow of magma from under the volcano.
Two earthquakes were detected around Tungnafellsjökul glacier, both smaller then M2.0. About 40 earthquakes were detected around Askja and Herðubreið since last Friday. All of them smaller than M2.0.

Air quality:

Today (Tuesday) gas pollution is expected Southwest and West of the volcano. Tomorrow (Wednesday) gas pollution might be felt to the Northwest of the eruption site.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 27^th of February 2015.

21. February 2015

20. February 2015

20.02.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues, but it has diminished substantially over the last few weeks. Visual activity in the crater has decreased and the lava field is hardly increasing in size.

Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga continues to diminish although it can still be considered strong. The strongest earthquake since Tuesday was measured M4.3 at 01:26 yesterday. Two other earthquakes stronger then magnitudes M3.0 were detected over the period. In total around 70 earthquakes were detected around the caldera since last Tuesday. No earthquake over M5.0 has been detected in Bárðarbunga since 8. January. A distinct pulse of earthquakes occurred yesterday between 01:25 and 02:10. Time intervals between such pulses have significantly increased from 2-4 hours in the beginning to 12-24 hours or more at the moment.
Around 65 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period. The strongest one was measured M1.6 today at 08:24 in Dyngjujökull glacier.
The rate of the subsidence in Bárðarbunga caldera had decreased substantially. But that is not the whole story. Ice is subsiding into the caldera with the effect that the GPS station does not show any changes. The estimated depression of the rock foundation of the caldera, in the light of the ice subsidence, is about 5 cm per day. The flow of magma from under Bárðarbunga is believed to be 25-30 m3 per second, which is about one tenth of the flow in September last year.
GPS measurements near Vatnajökull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bárðarbunga, indicating a flow of magma from under the volcano.
About 7 earthquakes were detected around Askja and 15 around Herðubreið since last Tuesday. All of them smaller than M1.5.

Air quality:

Today (Friday) gas pollution is expected south and southwest of the volcano, but south and southeast of it tomorrow (Saturday).
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 24^th of February 2015.

17. February 2015

17.02.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues. The eruption is still strong although it continues to diminish.

Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga continues to be strong. The strongest earthquake since the last meeting of the Advisory Board on Friday was measured M4.5 on Friday, 13^th of February, at 21:22. Two other earthquakes stronger then magnitudes M4.0 were detected over the period and three between M3.0-3.9. In total around 70 earthquakes were detected around the caldera since last Friday. No earthquake over M5.0 has been detected in Bárðarbunga since 8. January.
Around 60 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period. All smaller than M2.0.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajökull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bárðarbunga.
About 40 earthquakes were detected around Herðubreið and Herðubreiðartögl since Friday. The strongest was M2.0 yesterday at 03:39. About 10 earthquakes were detected around Askja and three in Tungnafellsjökull.

Air quality:

Today (Tuesday) gas pollution is expected east of the Volcano, but north and northwest of it tonight. Tomorrow (Wednesday) pollution is expected northeast of Holuhraun.

The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The volcanic eruption has now been going on for little less then five months, the lava flow is still great in Holuhraun and the rate of the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera is still significant. Three scenarios are considered most likely:

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Friday 20^th of February 2015.

13. February 2015

13.02.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues.

Seismic activity in Bárðarbunga continues to be strong. The strongest earthquake since the last meeting of the Advisory Board on Tuesday was measured M4.0 on Wednesday, 11^th of February, at 12:16. Few other earthquakes between magnitudes M3.0-3.9 were detected over the period. In total around 60 earthquakes were detected around the caldera since last Tuesday. No earthquake over M5.0 has been detected in Bárðarbunga since 8. January.
Around 30 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period. The strongest one was M1.2.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajökull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bárðarbunga.
A wave of seismic activity began tonight around Herðubreið and Herðubreiðartögl around 02:00 o’clock. The strongest earthquake detected was M2.7 at 08:19 this morning. The activity was strongest after 05:30 this morning. About 30 earthquakes have been detected in the area on 4-6 km depth. The activity is dampening down.
The National Commissioner of the Icelandic Police and Police Districts Commissioners in North East, East and Southern Iceland have decided (with reference to law on civil protection nr. 82/2008 article 23) to change the scope of the access controlled area north of Vatnajökull glacier. The decision is taken in close collaboration with the Icelandic Met Office, Vatnajökull National Park, the Icelandic Environmental Agency and the Directorate of Health. A map showing the new access controlled area, and GPS coordinates, can be seen on the web site of the Department of Civil Protection.

Air quality:

Today (Friday) gas pollution is expected west and northwest of the eruption site. Tomorrow (Saturday) gas pollution is expected north of the volcano.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.
The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 17^th of February 2015.

10. February 2015

10.02.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues. No scientists are in the area because of bad weather.

Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The strongest earthquake since the last meeting of the Advisory Board on Tuesday was measured M4.7 tonight at 03:18. Two other earthquakes stronger than M4.0 were detected since Friday, one was M4.1 on Saturday at 07:05, and the other M4.0, also on Saturday but at 04:00. About 10 earthquakes between magnitudes M3.0-3.9 were detected over the period. In total around 60 earthquakes were detected around the caldera since last Friday. No earthquake over M5.0 has been detected in Bardarbunga since 8. January.
Around 30 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period. The strongest one was M2.0 on Saturday at 20:35.
The GPS station in the Bardarbunga caldera is back on-line and is visible on the IMO web site.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga. A detectable errors are in the GPS measurements due to bad weather conditions over the last few days.
A new risk analysis for the area around the eruption site is being conducted. The new risk map for the area will be issued this week.
A team of scientists has been monitoring pollution in rainwater, snow and melt water since the eruption started. The team is planning to collect samples on Vatnajokull glacier and on mountain tops in Eastern Iceland. Chemical composition of rainwater around Iceland is also being monitored.

Air quality:

Tonight (Tuesday) and tomorrow (Wednesday) gas pollution may be expected northeast and east of Holuhraun.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.

The next meeting will be held on Friday 13^th of February 2015.

6. February 2015

06.02.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues. A visible reduction has been on the eruption in the last two weeks.

Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. The strongest earthquake since the last meeting of the Advisory Board on Tuesday was measured M4.9 tonight at 03:48. Two other earthquakes stronger than M4,0 were detected since Tuesday, one was M4,5 and the other M4,0. About 10 earthquakes between magnitudes M3.0-3.9 were detected over the period. In total around 110 earthquakes were detected around the caldera since last Tuesday. No earthquake over M5,0 has been detected in Bardarbunga since 8. January.
Around 20 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period. The strongest one was M1.8.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga.
The highest levels of sulphuric dioxide since Tuesday, 3^rd of February, 800 µg/m³ SO2 was measured in Vopnafjordur on Tuesday.
A new risk analysis for the area around the eruption site is being conducted. The new risk map for the area will be issued next week.
A team of technicians from The Icelandic Met Office, Institute of Earth Sciences UI, and The Department of Civil Protection have been working on maintenance on measuring equipment’s on Vatnajokull glacier and in the surrounding area. The GPS station in the Bardarbunga caldera is back on-line and will be visible on the IMO web site as before.

Air quality:

Today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) gas pollution will affect the area northeast and east of the eruption in Holuhraun.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.

The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 9^th of February 2015.

3. February 2015

03.02.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues. Small if any changes of the intensity of the eruption have been detected over the last few weeks.

Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Five earthquakes between M4.0-4.6 were detected since the last meeting of the Advisory Board on Friday. The strongest one was measured M4.6 yesterday at 21:35. About 10 earthquakes between magnitudes M3.0-3.9 were detected over the period. In total around 130 earthquakes were detected around the caldera since last Friday, or between 20 and 30 per day. No earthquake over M5,0 has been detected in Bardarbunga since 8. January.
Around 10 earthquakes per day were detected in the dyke during the same period. All of them were under M2.0.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga.
On Saturday around 2300 µg/m³ SO2 was measured in Hofn in Hornafjordur.
A new risk analysis for the area around the eruption site is being conducted. The new risk map for the area will be issued next week.

Air quality:

Today (Tuesday) gas pollution will affect the area around Holuhraun, but mainly northeast and east of it in the afternoon. Tomorrow (Wednesday) gas pollution might be felt to the east of the eruption.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.

The next meeting will be held on Friday 6^th of February 2015.

30 January 2015

30 January 2015 19:00 - from the Scientific Advisory Board

A forecast based on extrapolating the current developments of the Bárðarbunga subsidence shows that if the caldera keeps subsiding along a similar trajectory, then the subsidence will go on for another 5 to 16 months.
With the same method, the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun could evolve with similar pace and the eruption might last another 4 to 15 months. Information on the volume of the lava field in Holuhraun is, however, not as accurate as the information on the subsidence of Bárðarbunga.
These assumptions must be viewed with caution. It is entirely possible that the eruption will end sooner than predicted above. It is also possible that the eruption could become stable and go on for years, but with a greatly reduced magma flow rate.
An eruption in Bárðarbunga is still possible, even though the development described above will continue. Even though the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun stops in the coming months it is not certain that the current rifting episode is at an end. It is still possible that an eruption may start on another part of the fissure swarm within the Bárðarbunga volcanic system.

Report from the meeting of the Scientific Advisory Board (pdf 3.3 Mb)

Today's report is thorough and contains various graphs and maps with explanations.

29. January 2015

EO-1 mynd frá NASA, ásamt gögnum frá vettvangshópi Jarðvísindastofnunar.

27. January 2015

27.01.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues. Visible intensity of the eruption was low on last Wednesday while various observations were done at the eruption site. Comprehensive cross-section measurements from air (on 30. December and 21. January) show however that the lava field has thickened substantially during these three weeks and that the volume of the lava field is now little less than 1.4 km3. The flow of magma, during this period, was just under 100 m3 per second. The intensity of the eruption is there for slowly decreasing but hopefully it will be possible to measure the volume of the lava field again later this week, which will give new numbers on the flow of magma.

Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Eight earthquakes between M4.0-4.9 have been detected since the last meeting of the Advisory Board on Friday. The strongest one was measured M4.9 on Saturday, 24. January at 07:25. About 40 earthquakes between magnitudes M3.0-3.9 were detected over the period. In total around 150 earthquakes have been detected around the caldera since last Friday. No earthquake over M5,0 has been detected in Bardarbunga since 8. January.
Around 50 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period. Most of them were under M1.0 but the strongest one was M1.6 on 24. January.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga.

Air quality:

Today (Tuesday) gas pollution from the eruption might be felt in the northeast parts. Tomorrow (Wednesday) gas pollution will affect areas in the southeast during early morning, but areas to the south and southwest by afternoon.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.

Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.

The next meeting will be held on Friday 30^th of January 2015.

24. January 2015

EO-1 satellite image from NASA 24.1.2015 11:05 GMT, processed at the Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland. There has been very little increase in area coverage since the 21.1. but the image shows where the most active regions are within the lava field.

23. January 2015

23.01.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. The lava field has thickened substantially but activity on the surface has decreased.

The subsidence in Bardarbunga caldera was measured from air on Wednesday. The volume of the subsidence is now 1.7-1.8 km3. The change in volume from the last measurement corresponds to a flow of magma from underneath Bardarbunga of about 60 m3 per second. The greatest subsidence is now about 61 meters. Over the last few weeks the geothermal cauldrons in Bardarbunga have enlarged.
Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Over the last few weeks it has though been quite weaker than in the first months of the event. No earthquake over M5,0 has been detected in Bardarbunga for 15 days, which is the longest period between M5,0 earthquakes since the seismic activity started in August. The strongest earthquake since the last meeting of the Advisory Board on Tuesday was measured M4,7 yesterday at 03:07. Eight other earthquakes between magnitude M4,0-4,7 were detected over the period and about 37 earthquakes between M3,0-4,0. In total around 150 earthquakes have been detected around the caldera since last Tuesday.
Around 65 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period, the strongest one was measured M1,5.
Insubstantial earthquake activity was detected in Tungnafellsjokull, Askja and Herdubreid.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga.

Around 2200 µg/m3 SO2 were recorded on Thursday in Reykjahlid and at lake Myvatn. Very high values of SO2, about 84000 µg/m3, were recorded at the eruption site in Holuhraun on Wednesday, being the highest values recorded at ground level since the eruption started.

Air quality:

Today (Friday) gas pollution will be strongest northeast and east of the eruption site. Tomorrow (Saturday) gas pollution might be felt in many places in the northeast parts.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The volcanic eruption has now been going on for over three months, the lava flow is still great in Holuhraun and the rate of the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera is still significant. Three scenarios are considered most likely:

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 27^th of January 2015.

21. January 2015

Phostos from surveillance flight with LHG to the eruption site, 21. January 2015 (Morten S. Riishuus)

20. January 2015

20.01.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks.

Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Over the last few weeks it has though been quite weaker than in the first months of the event. The strongest earthquake since the last meeting of the Advisory Board on last Friday was measured M4,8 on Sunday January 18^th at 22:27. Another earthquake of magnitude M4,7 was detected this morning at 10:32. Sixteen earthquakes stronger than M4,0 were detected over the period and about 25 earthquakes between M3,0-4,0. In total around 230 earthquakes have been detected around the caldera since last Friday.
Around 60 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period, all of them smaller then M2,0.
Around 15 earthquakes were detected in Tungnafellsjokull glacier since last Friday, all smaller than M2,5.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga.

A number of monitoring equipment on and around Vatnajokull glacier are not transmitting data. A repair mission is heading towards the glacier today but weather conditions on this time of the year are very rough.
High values of sulphuric dioxide are still being recorded. Around 1800 µg/m3 SO2 were recorded last Friday in Hofn in Hornarfjordur and around 1750 µg/m3 in Reykjahlid last Sunday.

Air quality:

Today (Tuesday) the pollution from the Holuhraun eruption will move towards northwest and later north with calm winds. Tomorrow (Wednesday) calm winds are expected early on with gas pollution around the volcano and west of it. In the afternoon the winds will slowly increase and the pollution will be carried towards north.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.

The next meeting will be held on Friday 23rd of January 2015.

18. January 2015

EO-1 image from NASA, processed at the Institute of Earth Sciences. The lava covers an area of 84,6 km2 (84,2 km2 + 0,4 km2). The image is enhanced to highlight the active regions of the lava.

16. January 2015

16.01.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. Volume of the lava flow, over the last few weeks, is estimated 50-70 cubic meters per second.

Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong. Over the last few weeks it has though been quite weaker than in the first months of the event. Three earthquakes of magnitude M4,6 were detected since the last meeting of the Advisory Board on Tuesday, 13. January. Sixteen earthquakes were detected between magnitude M4,0-5,0 during that period and in total around 150 earthquakes were detected.
Around 40 earthquakes were detected in the dyke during the same period, all of them smaller then M2,0.
Around 20 earthquakes were detected in Tungnafellsjokull glacier since last Tuesday. The strongest one was M3,1 on January 13 at 13:17. Friday. Around 20 earthquakes were detected around Herdubreid, the strongest one was M2,3.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga.
The GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera is not transmitting any data at the moment. A repair mission is being organised to get the station back on-line.
High values of sulphuric dioxide are still being recorded.

Air quality:

Today (Friday) and tomorrow (Saturday) gas pollution can be expected in the areas south of the eruption site.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.

The next meeting will be held on Tuesday 20th of January 2015.

15. January 2015

EO-1 ALI satellite image from NASA, processed at the Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland. The lava covers an area of 84,3 km2 (83,9 km2 + 0,4 km2)

13. January 2015

13.01.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. Although the power of the eruption has diminished, it is still quite forceful. The flow of lava is now largely under the surface of solidified lava.

Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong, but it has though somewhat decreased. The largest earthquake since the last meeting of the Advisory Board was of magnitude M4,7 on Saturday, 10 of January at 18:23. In total 16 earthquakes were recorded of the period between magnitude M4,0-5,0 and 13 between M3,0-4,0. Over 20 earthquakes were detected in the dyke of the same period, all of them smaller then M2,0.
Six earthquakes were detected in Tungnafellsjokull glacier since Friday. The biggest was M2,1 tonight, January 13 at 04:21. Around 20 earthquakes were detected around Herdubreid, all smaller then M2,0.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga.
The GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera show that the caldera continues to subside.
Indications are of increased respiratory symptoms in Iceland over the period of the volcanic eruption. No serious cases have though been reported.
High values of sulphuric dioxide are still being recorded. Over the weekend high values were recorded in Hofn (3400 µ/m³) in Reydarfjordur (1000 µ/m³) and in Jokuldal (7800 µ/m³).

Air quality:

Today (Tuesday), there is a risk of gas pollution southwest of the eruption site. Tomorrow (Wednesday) gas pollution is expected south and southwest of the volcano.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.

The next meeting will be held on Friday 16 of January 2015.

10. January 2015

Photos from a helicopter trip over the eruption site on 10. January. Photographer: Morten S. Riishuus.

The lava extent has now reached 84,1 km2 (83,7 km2 + 0,4 km2)

9. January 2015

09.01.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. The eruption is now well visible on web cameras and the activity appears to be similar to preceding weeks.

Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong, but it has though somewhat decreased. Total number of earthquakes in Bardarbunga from the last meeting of the board, on the 6 of January, is just over 100. Just over 10 earthquakes were between M4,0-5,0. The strongest one was M5,1 yesterday, 8. December, at 18:47. Few earthquakes were detected in the dyke of the same period, all of them smaller then M2,0.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga. The rate of the deflation continues to slow down.
The GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera show that the caldera continues to subside. The rate of the subsidence continues to slow down and is now between 10-15 cm per day.

Air quality:

Today (Friday) gas pollution is expected north and northeast of the volcano. Tomorrow (Saturday) there is a risk of gas pollution E of the volcano, but west and southwest of it in the afternoon.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.

The next meeting will be held on Monday 12 of January 2015.

8. January 2015

MODIS thermal image, showing the most active areas in the lava, despite relatively low geometric resolution of 1km. Lava outline is from 5.1.2015

6. January 2015

06.01.2015, 11:00 UTC - Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:
Attending: Scientists from Icelandic Met Office and the Institute of Earth Sciences University of Iceland along with representatives from the Icelandic Civil Protection, the Environmental Agency of Iceland and the Directorate of Health.

Insubstantial changes have been in the volcanic eruption in Holuhraun over the last few weeks. The lava is now both flowing inside a closed channels and on the surface of the lava field. Data collected in flight over the lava field on 30th of December show that the volume of the lava field in Holuhraun is about 1,15 cubic kilometre.

Seismic activity in Bardarbunga continues to be strong, but it has though somewhat decreased. Total number of earthquakes in Bardarbunga from the last meeting of the board, on the 30th of December, is just over 250. About 20 earthquakes were between M4,0-5,0. The strongest one was M4,9 last night, 5. December, at 21:53. About 50 earthquakes were detected in the dyke of the same period, most of them smaller then M1,0. One earthquake was M2,0 yesterday, 5. January, at 02:26.
Seven earthquakes were detected in Tungnafellsjokull glacier during the period. The strongest one was around M3,0 on 30. December at 16:51.
GPS measurements near northern Vatnajokull glacier show continuing slow deflation towards Bardarbunga. The rate of the deflation continues to slow down.
The GPS station in Bardarbunga caldera show that the caldera continues to subside. The rate of the subsidence continues to slow down and is now around 13 cm per day.

Air quality:

Today, Tuesday, and tomorrow, Wednesday, there are chances of gas pollution north of the volcano.
The Icelandic Met Office provides two-day forecasts on gas dispersion from the eruptive site in Holuhraun. Most reliable are the forecast maps approved my meteorologist on duty, see Gas forecast. And although still being developed further, an automatic forecast, see Gas model, is also available (trial run, see disclaimer).
Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is Data from handheld gas monitors, spread around the country, can also be found on that page.

Instructions:

People who feel discomfort are advised to stay indoors, close their windows, turn up the heat and turn off air conditioning. Use periods of good air quality to ventilate the house. People experiencing adverse effects should be in immediate contact with their healthcare centre. Measurements of air quality can be found on the webpage www.airquality.is The Meteorological Office issues forecast on its web-page and warnings if conditions change to the worse.
Instructions from The Environment Agency of Iceland and Chief Epidemiologist can be found on their web-sites.
The Icelandic Met Office will publish forecasts for sulphuric gases dispersion on the web and in the national radio.
Information and any questions on air pollution can be sent to The Environment Agency through the email gos@ust.is. The Environment Agency is especially looking for information from people who have been in contact with high concentrations of gas; where they were, at what time it happened, how the gas cloud looked (colour and thickness of the cloud) and how they were affected by it.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues until the subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops. The eruption can still go on for many months.
The volcanic fissure may lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier. If such an eruption would be prolonged it could eventually produce a lava flow.
Volcanic eruption in the Bardarbunga caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall.
Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

From the Icelandic Met Office: The Aviation Colour Code for Bardarbunga remains at ‘orange’.

The next meeting will be held on Friday 9 of January 2015.

5. January 2015

Combined LANDSAT 8 (NASA & USGS) and SENTINEL 1 (ESA) images from 5.1.2015 Early morning on 5.1.2015 the lava covered 83,4 km2 (83 km2 + 0,4 km2).

3. January 2015

LANDSAT 8 satellite image from NASA & USGS 3.1.2015 at 12:33 GMT, processed by the Volcanolog and Natural Hazard group, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland

1. January 2015

Radar image from Nornahraun/Holuhraun lava this morning.

Publications:

Bárðarbunga Volcanic System, a pre-publication extract from the Catalogue of Icelandic Volcanoes, to be made publically available in the coming months.

Hazard due to eruptions, including subglacial ones:
M. T. Gudmundsson, G. Larsen, Á. Höskuldsson and Á. G. Gylfason, 2008. Volcanic hazards in Iceland, Jökull (58), 251-268.

On the volcano-ice interaction in the Gjálp eruption:
https://notendur.hi.is//~mtg/pdf/1997Nature_MTG_FS_HB.pdf
https://notendur.hi.is//~mtg/pdf/2003BullVolc66_MTGetal_Gjalp.pdf

On eruptions in glaciers in general:
https://notendur.hi.is//~mtg/pdf/2005SubglacVolcAct_MTG-DQS.pdf
https://notendur.hi.is//~mtg/pdf/2003GeopMono140_MTG_magma-ice-water.pdf

More related publications:

Hartley, M. E., and T. Thordarson (2013), The 1874–1876 volcano-tectonic episode at Askja, North Iceland: Lateral flow revisited, Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 14, 2286–2309, doi:10.1002/ggge.20151

M.E. Hartley, T. Thordarson, J.G. Fitton and EIMF (2013), Oxygen isotopes in melt inclusions and glasses from the Askja volcanic system, North Iceland, Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, 123, 55–73. doi: 10.1016/j.gca.2013.09.008

Hartley, M. E., and T. Thordarson (2012), Formation of Öskjuvatn caldera at Askja, North Iceland: Mechanism of caldera collapse and implications for the lateral flow hypothesis, Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 227-228, 85-101. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.02.009

Óladóttir, B.A., Larsen G. & Sigmarsson, O. Holocene volcanic activity at Grímsvötn, Bárdarbunga and Kverkfjöll subglacial centres beneath Vatnajökull, Iceland. Bulletin of Volcanology, 73, 1187-1208. doi: 10.1007/s00445-011-0461-4

Björnsdóttir, Þ. & Einarsson, P., 2013. Evidence of recent fault movements in the Tungnafellsjökull fissure swarm in the Central Volcanic Zone, Iceland. Jökull (63), 17-32.

Björnsson, H. & Einarsson, P., 1990. Volcanoes beneath Vatnajökull, Iceland: Evidence from radio echo-sounding, earthquakes and jökulhlaups. Jökull (40), 147-168.

Einarsson, P., 1991. Earthquakes and present-day tectonism in Iceland. Tectonophysics, 189, 261-279.

Thordarson, T., and G. Larsen, 2007. Volcanism in Iceland in historical time: Volcano types, eruption styles and eruptive history. Journal of Geodynamics, 43, p. 118-152.

Pagli, C., and F. Sigmundsson, 2008. Will present day glacier retreat increase volcanic activity? Stress induced by recent glacier retreat and its effect on magmatism at the Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L09304, doi:10.1029/2008GL033510.

Höskuldsson, Á. 2000. Late Pleistocene subglacial caldera formation at Cerro las Cumbres. eastern Mexico, Jökull (50), 49-64.

Armann Höskuldsson, Robert S. J. Sparks, Michael R. Carroll, 2006. Constraints on the dynamics of subglacial basalt eruptions from geological and geochemical observations at Kverkfjöll, NE-Iceland, Bulletin of Volcanology, (68) 7-8, 689-701. DOI 10.1007/s00445-005-0043-4

Armann Höskuldsson, Michael R. Carroll, Robert S. J. Sparks. QUATERNARY ICE SHEET THICKNESS, JÖKULHLAUPS AND RAPID DEPRESSURIZATION OF PILLOW BASALTS, Mars Polar Science 2000.

Armann Höskuldsson, Robert S. J. Sparks, 1997. Thermodynamics and fluid dynamics of effusive subglacial eruptions, Bulletin of Volcanology (59), 219-230.

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Bárðarbunga - Holuhraun