Friday seminars of Institute of Earth Sciences, November 13th 2026 - Gregory Paul De Pascale (Professor of Tectonics and Structural Geology, University of Iceland)

Abstract

Prediction of tectono-volcanic unrest is the holy grail of the geosciences. But, many geoscientists are cautioned against making predictions because of several issues with the outcome of those predictions - including getting them wrong. However, would it not be great to know when, where and extent of the impact of fault motions, eruptions, and earthquakes? Are we getting closer? How much would Icelandic society have saved by not building on faults that were in Grindavik before the town was built? Have we learned from our mistakes after the last 6 years of unrest? New research and geophysical and geological observations from both Reykjanes unrest (ultramodern) and the geological record, e.g. Ljósufjöll, and other examples provides important insights and help our societies prepare for near-term (i.e. now) and longer-term unrest. New robust predictions will be made regarding Iceland's next tectono-volcanic unrest based on system behaviour, modelling, and expected outcomes. A discussion of monitoring at various timescales and outcomes of this as to define future research priorities (that is where should we devote resources) in Iceland will also be addressed including low probability, high risk geological events. Strategies to take these predictions and use them will be discussed. Because the past is the key to the present, and in celebration of 60 years of the Science Institute of the University of Iceland, this talk is designed and structured to initiate discussion of the immediate and longer-term, from now to the next 60 years and beyond, of the geosciences with funding priorities to help us reach said holy grail mentioned above to make Icelandic society and infrastructure more resilient.

All are welcome.